4241 Trickling Creek Ln · Fort Worth, TX
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- —
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +12.1/30.0
- ARV discount +8.9/15.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- DSCR +3.6/10.0
- Rent growth +3.1/5.0
- 1% rule +2.5/10.0
- Schools +2.5/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$317,500
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
*Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. *The Justin is a single story, approx. 1,875 sq. ft, home offering 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. This home features a long entryway leading into the open-concept kitchen, dining, and living space. The kitchen overlooks the living room and features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, a large kitchen island, and a corner walk-in pantry. With the three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, the main bedroom is located at the back of the home, just off the living room. The private main bedroom features an ensuite bathroom complete with a huge walk in closet and large walk-in shower with ceramic tile surround. The Justin comes with a covered rear patio giving view to the professionally irrigated and landscaped yard. Additional features include tankless water heater; Ceramic tile flooring at Entry, Kitchen, Living Room, Utility and Bathrooms; and full yard sod, landscaping and irrigation. The Justin includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.
Key facts
- 5,750 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 2025
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $318k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-842/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (3.9% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (25.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $237k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
- Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.75% ✗
- Cap rate
- 6.03%
- Cash-on-cash
- -0.95%
- DSCR
- 0.96
- GRM
- 11.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $327,636
- List price
- $317,500
- Delta
- -3.09%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -18.6%
- Equity multiple
- 0.35×
- Total profit
- $-57,739
- Equity at exit
- $47,340
- IRR
- -12.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.29×
- Total profit
- $-63,408
- Equity at exit
- $27,452
Cash invested: $88,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 76036
- Home prices YoY
- -25.2%
- Rents YoY
- 2.3%
- Active inventory
- 1018
- Price-to-rent
- 11.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,371 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,665
- Tax from tax record
- −$104 /mo · $1,250/yr
- Insurance
- −$132
- HOA
- −$42
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$498
- Net cashflow
- $-70
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $79,375
- Closing costs
- $9,525
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4148 Crooked Bend Dr Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1450 | $2,100 | $1.45 | 12d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 4148 Crooked Bend Dr Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1469 | $2,100 | $1.43 | 24d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 4213 Dublin Ridge Dr Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1553 | $2,050 | $1.32 | 3d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 10432 Fort Bird Trl Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2100 | $3,000 | $1.43 | 43d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 10373 Fort Belknap Trl Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1780 | $2,160 | $1.21 | 43d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 10406 Fort Cibolo Trl Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1808 | $1,900 | $1.05 | 43d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 405 Bryan Dr Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1343 | $1,795 | $1.34 | 24d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 4052 Dublin Ridge Dr Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1464 | $1,895 | $1.29 | 22d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 4224 Old Timber Ln Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2092 | $2,250 | $1.08 | 43d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 10381 Fort Ewell Trl Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1494 | $2,149 | $1.44 | 43d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 10368 Fort Crockett Trl Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1905 | $2,150 | $1.13 | 24d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 10356 Fort Teran Trl Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1508 | $2,169 | $1.44 | 43d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 4201 Summersweet Ln Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1398 | $1,960 | $1.40 | 12d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 10344 Fort Teran Trl Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1494 | $2,149 | $1.44 | 43d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 1032 Verde Valley Ln Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2145 | $2,400 | $1.12 | 18d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 4156 Summersweet Ln Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1307 | $1,900 | $1.45 | 43d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 4013 Drifters Bend Dr Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1667 | $2,200 | $1.32 | 43d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 1013 Verde Valley Ln Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2225 | $2,400 | $1.08 | 24d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 10316 Fort Teran Trl Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1501 | $2,199 | $1.47 | 12d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 4004 Arklow St Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1668 | $2,200 | $1.32 | 24d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 4004 Arklow St Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1668 | $2,200 | $1.32 | 5d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 4505 Greyberry Dr Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1429 | $2,100 | $1.47 | 18d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 109 N Heights Dr Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1284 | $1,945 | $1.51 | 24d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 316 Quail Creek Dr Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1317 | $1,683 | $1.28 | 12d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 4533 Greenham Ln Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1531 | $1,995 | $1.30 | 43d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 4932 Water Lily Ln Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1848 | $2,595 | $1.40 | 12d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 4444 Sagecroft Rd Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1534 | $2,050 | $1.34 | 43d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 10121 Wyseby Rd Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1622 | $1,995 | $1.23 | 43d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 1136 Park Gln Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1487 | $2,000 | $1.34 | 12d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 4633 Benham Dr Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1740 | $2,000 | $1.15 | 4d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 4633 Benham Dr Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1740 | $2,000 | $1.15 | 43d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 4644 Benham Dr Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1422 | $1,995 | $1.40 | 43d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 5020 Cervinae Rd Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1947 | $2,550 | $1.31 | 20d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 221 Arnold St Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1266 | $1,695 | $1.34 | 5d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 9925 Ryegrass Ter Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1487 | $2,350 | $1.58 | 43d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 4725 Sassafras Dr Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2067 | $2,899 | $1.40 | 43d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 9717 Snowbell Ln Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1928 | $2,195 | $1.14 | 22d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 404 Canoe Way Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1827 | $2,195 | $1.20 | 19d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 4365 Mill Stream Ln Crowley, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1602 | $2,300 | $1.44 | 24d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 636 Horn St Crowley, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1804 | $1,980 | $1.10 | 5d | 1 | 1.27mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $42 · $504/yr
- Likely covers
- watergaslandscapingsecurity
Listing history 19 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $317,500 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $317,500 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $317,500 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $317,500 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $317,500 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $317,500 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $317,500 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $317,500 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $317,500 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $317,500 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $317,500 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $317,500 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $317,500 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $317,500 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-05-05price $322,500 1252-char remark
Show marketing remark (1252 chars)
*Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. *The Justin is a single story, approx. 1,875 sq. ft, home offering 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. This home features a long entryway leading into the open-concept kitchen, dining, and living space. The kitchen overlooks the living room and features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, a large kitchen island, and a corner walk-in pantry. With the three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, the main bedroom is located at the back of the home, just off the living room. The private main bedroom features an ensuite bathroom complete with a huge walk in closet and large walk-in shower with ceramic tile surround. The Justin comes with a covered rear patio giving view to the professionally irrigated and landscaped yard. Additional features include tankless water heater; Ceramic tile flooring at Entry, Kitchen, Living Room, Utility and Bathrooms; and full yard sod, landscaping and irrigation. The Justin includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.
-
2026-04-10price $325,000 1252-char remark
Show marketing remark (1252 chars)
*Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. *The Justin is a single story, approx. 1,875 sq. ft, home offering 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. This home features a long entryway leading into the open-concept kitchen, dining, and living space. The kitchen overlooks the living room and features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, a large kitchen island, and a corner walk-in pantry. With the three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, the main bedroom is located at the back of the home, just off the living room. The private main bedroom features an ensuite bathroom complete with a huge walk in closet and large walk-in shower with ceramic tile surround. The Justin comes with a covered rear patio giving view to the professionally irrigated and landscaped yard. Additional features include tankless water heater; Ceramic tile flooring at Entry, Kitchen, Living Room, Utility and Bathrooms; and full yard sod, landscaping and irrigation. The Justin includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.
-
2026-03-30$335,000 Active 1252-char remark
Show marketing remark (1252 chars)
*Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. *The Justin is a single story, approx. 1,875 sq. ft, home offering 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. This home features a long entryway leading into the open-concept kitchen, dining, and living space. The kitchen overlooks the living room and features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, a large kitchen island, and a corner walk-in pantry. With the three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, the main bedroom is located at the back of the home, just off the living room. The private main bedroom features an ensuite bathroom complete with a huge walk in closet and large walk-in shower with ceramic tile surround. The Justin comes with a covered rear patio giving view to the professionally irrigated and landscaped yard. Additional features include tankless water heater; Ceramic tile flooring at Entry, Kitchen, Living Room, Utility and Bathrooms; and full yard sod, landscaping and irrigation. The Justin includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.
-
2026-01-27price $334,490
-
2026-01-08$332,490 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,250 · $104/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $5,810 · $484/mo
- Expected delta
- +$4,560/yr (+$380/mo · 364.9%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,456
- − Mortgage interest
- −$17,785
- − Property taxes
- −$1,250
- − Insurance
- −$1,588
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,276
- − Management
- −$2,276
- − HOA
- −$504
- − Depreciation
- −$9,236
- Taxable loss
- −$6,460
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,550
- After-tax cash flow
- $709/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Crowley ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4815910
- Math proficiency
- 23% ▼ -15.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 32% ▼ -6.00%
- Median HH income
- $59,810
- Composite
- 25.04/100
- National rank
- #7549
- State rank
- #643 of 826 in TX
Livability — Fort Worth
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #49
- US rank
- #1954
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Fort Worth, TX
- County
- Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
- City population
- 36,044
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 36,044
- Household income
- $97,973
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 584.0
Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 2,380,417 people
- By 2030
- 2,578,900 · +8.3%
- By 2040
- 2,974,995 · +25.0%
- By 2050
- 3,350,489 · +40.8%
- By 2075
- 4,216,909 · +77.2%
- By 2100
- 4,741,527 · +99.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant
- 2024 margin
- Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -80.45%
- Current HPI
- 238.6365
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.28%
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
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Price history
-3.0% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-05 Price Changed $322,500 NTREIS
- 2026-04-10 Price Changed $325,000 NTREIS
- 2026-03-30 Listed $335,000 NTREIS
- 2026-01-27 Price Changed $334,490 NTREIS
- 2026-01-08 Listed $332,490 NTREIS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…