1629 W Capitol Ave · Springfield, IL 62704

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Other · 2 Days on market

Built 1964 5,560 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity or a diamond in the rough with lots of potential. Home has been used as a rental and needs updating - 2 major improvements have already been made. The roof was replaced in 2022 and the HVAC in 2018. Put your shine on this cute 3 bed 1 bath home. 2 car detached garage.

Key facts

• Hvac updated
• Roof replaced
• 5,560 sq ft lot

Tags

• ROOF REPLACED
• HVAC UPDATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1964
• Construction: Not new construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with laminate flooring
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and living room; Laminate in kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; No basement; No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.09%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $17,896
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $71,965
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62704

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,764/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $466	-5% $442	+0% $418	+5% $394	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $305	-5% $362	+0% $418	+5% $475	+10% $531
Rate	-1.0pp $461	-0.5pp $440	base $418	+0.5pp $396	+1.0pp $374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1539 W Monroe St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	820	$2,000	$2.44	21d	1	0.10mi
1644 W Adams St Unit 1 Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	44d	1	0.10mi
300 N Park Ave Springfield, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	694	$1,035	$1.49	21d	1	0.51mi
216 N Lincoln Ave Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.52mi
203 N Glenwood Ave Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	21d	1	0.88mi
629 W Washington St Unit 4 Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	44d	1	1.00mi
423 W Lawrence Ave Unit 2 Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	21d	1	1.18mi
424 S Durkin Dr Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	885	$925	$1.05	21d	1	1.21mi
1030 N MacArthur Blvd Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,350	$0.96	21d	1	1.22mi
229 W Allen St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,305	$1.24	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $85,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 291-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   listed $85,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,764
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$958
• After-tax cash flow: $4,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,046
• Household income: $69,976
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1529.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 15% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.79%
• Current HPI: 156.7086
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.32%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $85,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,764 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.