119 Superior Ave · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$109,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 547 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1959 8,712 sqft lot Est $95k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable move-in ready home in Machesney Park close to the river and bike path. Vaulted ceiling in living room. Fridge & stove stay and there is 1st floor laundry hook-ups. Large bedroom could go back to 2 smaller bedrooms if desired. Sliders off of the kitchen go out to the good sized, mostly fenced back yard. New roof & Maintenance free exterior. Harlem school district. Check it out!

Key facts

• Scenic bike path
• Fenced backyard
• Spacious living room

Tags

• SCENIC BIKE PATH
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: House construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Gas cooktop, Refrigerator, Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.9% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Marquette Elem School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 289 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $110k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,631
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Superior Ave	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	574 (+5%)	19mo	$67,000	$117	71
319 Huron Rd	0.17mi	2/1.0	572 (+5%)	20mo	$94,900	$166	68
121 Winona Dr	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	540 (-1%)	22mo	$63,000	$117	68
415 Pershing Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	575 (+5%)	1mo	$110,500	$192	60
7716 Elm Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	561 (+3%)	5mo	$97,000	$173	58
7618 Borodell St	0.56mi	2/1.0	533 (-3%)	22mo	$82,500	$155	51
417 Wilshire Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0	585 (+7%)	17mo	$122,000	$209	51
829 Maple Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	581 (+6%)	13mo	$118,000	$203	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,933
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $8,222
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,120/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $109,999

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,999 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,999 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,999 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 481-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $109,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,120 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,309 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$188/yr (+$16/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,120
• − Insurance: −$1,347
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$92
• After-tax cash flow: $1,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+423.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $109,999 NWIAR
• 2024-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-15 Sold (MLS) $67,000 NWIAR
• 2024-11-12 Pending — NWIAR
• 2024-11-08 Relisted — NWIAR
• 2024-10-24 Pending — NWIAR
• 2024-10-21 Listed $69,900 NWIAR
• 2000-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,120 · +39.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.