2 Old Chapel Ave · Boyce, VA 22620

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1988 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this opportunity to own a spacious 3 bed 2 bath home situated on flat lot in Boyce. Features open floor plan, separate dining room and large family room. Each bedroom includes generous walk-in closets for ample storage. Laundry conveniently located at rear entrance includes mud/room or versatile utility and pantry. Primary suite includes bath with large jetted tub and separate stand-up shower with dual sinks. Separate home and barn on property convey, potential rental income.

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 76 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#300 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarke County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Clarke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Clarke County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $198k; list at $300k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,166 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $171,088
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $497,416
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22620

• Home prices YoY: 14.1%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,472 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,577/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,315

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 E Huntingdon Ln Boyce, VA	3.0	3.0	2150	$2,475	$1.15	18d	1	0.19mi
8122 John Mosby Hwy Boyce, VA	3.0	1.5	1600	$2,450	$1.53	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-27
   price $299,900
4. 2026-03-04
   price $315,000
5. 2026-02-24
   price $329,000
6. 2026-01-22
   listed $349,000 Active
7. 2025-12-17
   historical $349,000
8. 2023-07-26
   soldstatus $197,500
9. 2023-07-26
   soldstatus $197,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$882/yr (+$74/mo · 55.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,577
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,373
• − Management: −$2,373
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$3,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$885
• After-tax cash flow: $2,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100870
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $72,709
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1439
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Boyce

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #10749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Boyce, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,649

Population outlook (Clarke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,102 people
• By 2030: 15,463 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 16,014 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 16,212 · +7.4%
• By 2075: 17,257 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 16,631 · +10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Clarke

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 40.8% · R 57.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+13.7 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.60%
• Current HPI: 417.207
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+51.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $315,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $329,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $349,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-17 Coming Soon $349,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $197,500 Public Records
• 2023-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $197,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,577 · +30.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.