620 38TH St #604 · Union City, NJ 07087

$470,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 989 sqft · Condo public records · 81 Days on market

Built 2006 $475/sqft · 12% below area Est $536k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo offering comfort, convenience, and modern living. This inviting unit features a bright and open layout with a spacious living and dining area, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well- appointed with ample cabinetry and counter space, while both bedrooms are generously sized, including a primary suite with a private full bath. The second bathroom is equally well-kept. Enjoy the added convenience of a dedicated parking space in the building, as well as being located in a desirable community close to shopping, dining, and transportation, this condo is truly turnkey and ready for its next owner. Don’t miss this opportunity for easy, low-maintenance living in a prime location!

Key facts

• Close to dining
• Close to shopping
• Parking

Tags

• DEDICATED PARKING SPACE
• BRIGHT AND OPEN LAYOUT
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (43.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (40.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 226 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,787/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 6042% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($442k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $305k; list at $470k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $267,642 (43.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.00%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $535,876
• List price: $470,000
• Delta: -12.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $152,725
• Equity at exit: $423,413

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $516,565
• Equity at exit: $913,107

Cash invested: $131,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07087

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,787 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax from tax record: −$687 /mo · $8,238/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA est. from 4 same-building comps: −$390
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-1,536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,731

Max offer price $198,747

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,500
• Closing costs: $14,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
530 40th St Unit 2nd Fl Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	43d	1	0.15mi
1441 Union Tpke Unit C9 North Bergen, NJ	2.0	1.0	817	$2,450	$3.00	12d	1	0.20mi
4206 Smith Ave Unit 1 North Bergen, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	7d	1	0.23mi
318 38th St Union City, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	887	$2,750	$3.10	11d	2	0.31mi
318 38th St #301 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	874	$2,850	$3.26	43d	1	0.31mi
515 32nd St Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1125	$3,200	$2.84	22d	2	0.32mi
4525 Bergenwood Ave North Bergen, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	871	$3,500	$4.02	19d	4	0.38mi
4525 Bergenwood Ave Unit 207 North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0	760	$2,700	$3.55	24d	1	0.38mi
4525 Bergenwood Ave Unit 208 North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0	765	$2,950	$3.86	24d	1	0.38mi
4525 Bergenwood Ave Unit 203 North Bergen, NJ	2.0	1.0	957	$3,250	$3.40	20d	1	0.38mi
4525 Bergenwood Ave Unit 311 North Bergen, NJ	2.0	2.0	982	$3,500	$3.56	24d	1	0.38mi
210 36th St Unit 3L Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,100	$2.80	7d	1	0.39mi
4237 Bergen Tpke Unit 4B North Bergen, NJ	1.0	2.0	1020	$3,000	$2.94	22d	1	0.39mi
515 30th St Unit 1C Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,500	$3.50	7d	1	0.40mi
136 41st St #203 Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	850	$2,500	$2.94	24d	1	0.43mi
3601 Liberty Ave North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0	1079	$2,850	$2.64	22d	1	0.44mi
4614 John F. Kennedy Blvd Unit 403 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	925	$3,595	$3.89	24d	1	0.44mi
4614 Kennedy Blvd Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	925	$3,595	$3.89	13d	1	0.44mi
4614 Kennedy Blvd Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	971	$3,695	$3.81	24d	1	0.44mi
3309 Liberty Ave North Bergen, NJ	2.0	2.0	1083	$3,325	$3.07	3d	5	0.45mi
121 41st St #1 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	553	$2,300	$4.16	17d	1	0.46mi
804 27th ST #2	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	24d	1	0.46mi
528 47th St Unit 3A Union City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,950	$2.68	2d	1	0.47mi
125 43rd St Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1102	$3,000	$2.72	3d	5	0.47mi
115 37th St Unit 207 Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	867	$3,100	$3.58	43d	1	0.50mi
115 37th St Unit 209 Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	772	$2,600	$3.37	43d	1	0.50mi
115 37th St Unit 102 Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	600	$2,500	$4.17	5d	1	0.50mi
2709 Bergenline Ave Unit 3B Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,550	$2.21	22d	1	0.50mi
123 44th St Union City, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$3,258	$2.90	3d	11	0.51mi
2626 Grand Ave North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0	736	$2,522	$3.42	17d	7	0.53mi
4301 Park Ave Union City, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$3,500	$3.33	43d	2	0.54mi
4301 Park Ave Union City, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$3,500	$3.47	24d	2	0.54mi
231 32nd St Unit 412 Weehawken, NJ	1.0	1.0	683	$2,815	$4.12	7d	1	0.55mi
119 Peter St Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1099	$3,500	$3.18	13d	1	0.56mi
4901 Bergenline Ave West New York, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	930	$4,257	$4.57	3d	8	0.57mi
2610 New York Ave Unit 4 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	43d	1	0.58mi
2507 John F. Kennedy Blvd Unit 207 North Bergen, NJ	1.0	1.0	936	$2,600	$2.78	24d	1	0.58mi
4828 Tonnelle Ave North Bergen, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$3,047	$3.51	2d	25	0.62mi
221 Angelique St Unit 2 Weehawken Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,700	$2.70	10d	1	0.63mi
221 Jane St #1 Weehawken, NJ	1.0	1.0	600	$2,100	$3.50	22d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $470,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $470,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $470,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $470,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $470,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $470,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $470,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $485,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $485,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $485,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $485,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $485,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $485,000 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo offering comfort, convenience, and modern living. This inviting unit features a bright and open layout with a spacious living and dining area, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-appointed with ample cabinetry and counter space, while both bedrooms are generously sized, including a primary suite with a private full bath. The second bathroom is equally well-kept. Enjoy the added convenience of a dedicated parking space in the building, as well as being located in a desirable community close to shopping, dining, and transportation, this condo is truly turnkey and ready for its next owner. Don’t miss this opportunity for easy, low-maintenance living in a prime location!

16. 2026-05-01
    price $485,000 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo offering comfort, convenience, and modern living. This inviting unit features a bright and open layout with a spacious living and dining area, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-appointed with ample cabinetry and counter space, while both bedrooms are generously sized, including a primary suite with a private full bath. The second bathroom is equally well-kept. Enjoy the added convenience of a dedicated parking space in the building, as well as being located in a desirable community close to shopping, dining, and transportation, this condo is truly turnkey and ready for its next owner. Don’t miss this opportunity for easy, low-maintenance living in a prime location!

17. 2026-03-29
    listed $500,000 Active 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo offering comfort, convenience, and modern living. This inviting unit features a bright and open layout with a spacious living and dining area, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-appointed with ample cabinetry and counter space, while both bedrooms are generously sized, including a primary suite with a private full bath. The second bathroom is equally well-kept. Enjoy the added convenience of a dedicated parking space in the building, as well as being located in a desirable community close to shopping, dining, and transportation, this condo is truly turnkey and ready for its next owner. Don’t miss this opportunity for easy, low-maintenance living in a prime location!

18. 2026-03-13
    listed $500,000 Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo offering comfort, convenience, and modern living. This inviting unit features a bright and open layout with a spacious living and dining area, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well- appointed with ample cabinetry and counter space, while both bedrooms are generously sized, including a primary suite with a private full bath. The second bathroom is equally well-kept. Enjoy the added convenience of a dedicated parking space in the building, as well as being located in a desirable community close to shopping, dining, and transportation, this condo is truly turnkey and ready for its next owner. Don’t miss this opportunity for easy, low-maintenance living in a prime location!

19. 2010-05-01
    historical
20. 2009-11-02
    listed $264,900
21. 2008-03-12
    soldstatus $305,000
22. 2008-01-25
    price $320,000
23. 2008-01-25
    historical
24. 2007-07-05
    listed $305,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,238 · $687/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,971 · $831/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,732/yr (+$144/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,327
• − Property taxes: −$8,238
• − Insurance: −$2,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,675
• − Management: −$2,675
• − HOA: −$4,680
• − Depreciation: −$13,673
• Taxable loss: −$27,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,523
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union City School District
• NCES district ID: 3416380
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $41,210
• Composite: 21.55/100
• National rank: #8312
• State rank: #399 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Union City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #2998

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, NJ
• County: Hudson County · 718,323 people
• City population: 66,463
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 66,463
• Household income: $64,310
• Rent vs Own: 80.9% rent · 19.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6042.0

Population outlook (Hudson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 771,834 people
• By 2030: 818,028 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 907,866 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 994,480 · +28.8%
• By 2075: 1,163,301 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,254,703 · +62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 28% White 10% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 9% Dominican 17%
• Foreign-born: 55% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hudson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.1) · D 62.6% · R 34.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: 46.7pp · 2024: 28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.1 2020: D+46.2 2016: D+51.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+46.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.10%
• Current HPI: 597.8126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.89%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+59.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $485,000 HCMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $485,000 NJMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $500,000 NJMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $500,000 HCMLS
• 2010-05-01 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2009-11-02 Listed $264,900 HCMLS
• 2008-03-12 Sold (MLS) $305,000 HCMLS
• 2008-01-25 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2008-01-25 Price Changed $320,000 HCMLS
• 2007-07-05 Listed $305,000 HCMLS

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,238 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.