2845 E Hatch Rd #5 · Ceres, CA 95351

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition $62/sqft · 26% below area Est $128k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious double-wide mobile home located in an all-ages community! This well-designed home features two separate living areas, offering plenty of space for entertaining or everyday living. Enjoy the covered patio/porch, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings year-round. The large primary bedroom includes a double sink vanity and a soaking tub, adding comfort and convenience. With a functional layout and generous space throughout, this home is a must see!

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Covered patio
• Double sink vanity

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• COVERED PATIO
• DOUBLE SINK VANITY
• SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located near Mitchell Rd; address 2845 E Hatch Rd #5, Modesto, CA 95351
• Financial info: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Deck parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Internet available; 220-volt outlet in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide; Built in 1970
• Construction: Metal skirting; Lakewood manufactured home
• Exterior features: Corner location; Close to clubhouse; Roof: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Built-in gas range; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Jetted tub; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Wall units; Window units; Other heating
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Dining and family room combined; Living room with flexible/other features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Gas hookup in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,360/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1964% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.49%
• DSCR: 3.42
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,000
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -25.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2845 E Hatch Rd #78	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	3mo	$67,500	$47	85
2845 E Hatch Rd #84	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	1mo	$128,000	$89	84
2845 E Hatch Rd #71	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	22mo	$110,000	$76	64
2845 E Hatch Rd #44	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-9%)	23mo	$160,000	$114	58
2841 Fowler #37	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	9mo	$105,000	$73	57
2841 Fowler #141	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+6%)	12mo	$185,000	$114	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $61,566
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $152,808
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95351

• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $1,208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2808 Canyon Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	21d	1	0.21mi
2685 Parkway Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$795	$0.69	43d	1	0.35mi
1120 Landreth Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$3,395	$2.18	13d	1	0.53mi
2232 Ridgeway Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,295	$1.60	13d	1	0.72mi
2029 Venus Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	23d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $95,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,265
• − Management: −$2,265
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $13,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,313
• After-tax cash flow: $11,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained double-wide mobile home in an all-ages community offers spacious living areas and a functional layout. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and cleaning the gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,498
• Household income: $58,275
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1964.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 40% White 13% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.77%
• Current HPI: 360.246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B