2845 E Hatch Rd #5 · Ceres, CA 95351

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 85 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1970 Good condition $62/sqft · 26% below area Est $128k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

Listing remarks

Spacious double-wide mobile home located in an all-ages community! This well-designed home features two separate living areas, offering plenty of space for entertaining or everyday living. Enjoy the covered patio/porch, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings year-round. The large primary bedroom includes a double sink vanity and a soaking tub, adding comfort and convenience. With a functional layout and generous space throughout, this home is a must see!

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Covered patio
• Double sink vanity

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• COVERED PATIO
• DOUBLE SINK VANITY
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $760 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.6% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucas Elementary (653 students, 76% FRL); Cesar Chavez Junior High (662 students, 83% FRL); Ceres High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,777 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.28%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,481
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -26.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2845 E Hatch Rd #78	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	4mo	$67,500	$47	84
2845 E Hatch Rd #84	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	3mo	$128,000	$89	82
2841 Fowler Rd #111	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (-0%)	1mo	$185,000	$121	74
2845 E Hatch Rd #71	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	23mo	$110,000	$76	63
2841 Fowler #37	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	10mo	$105,000	$73	56
2841 Fowler Rd #89	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	2mo	$140,000	$104	52
2841 Fowler #141	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+6%)	14mo	$185,000	$114	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $33,034
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $91,199
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.3 mo (23%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $130,000 ($90/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95351

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,793 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $760

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $826	-5% $793	+0% $760	+5% $727	+10% $694
Rent	-10% $618	-5% $689	+0% $760	+5% $831	+10% $902
Rate	-1.0pp $808	-0.5pp $784	base $760	+0.5pp $735	+1.0pp $710

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2808 Canyon Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	70d	1	0.21mi
2685 Parkway Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$795	$0.69	93d	1	0.35mi
1120 Landreth Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$3,395	$2.18	63d	1	0.53mi
2232 Ridgeway Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,295	$1.60	63d	1	0.72mi
2029 Venus Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	72d	1	0.79mi
1757 Richland Ave Ceres, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,750	$1.79	43d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located near Mitchell Rd; address 2845 E Hatch Rd #5, Modesto, CA 95351
• Financial info: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No homeowners associationNot a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parkingDeck parkingGuest parking available
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable availableInternet available220-volt outlet in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in parkDouble wideBuilt in 1970
• Construction: Metal skirtingLakewood manufactured home
• Exterior features: Corner locationClose to clubhouseRoof: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric ovenBuilt-in gas rangeRange hood
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsJetted tubShower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Wall unitsWindow unitsOther heating
• Interior features: Laminate countertopsDining and family room combinedLiving room with flexible/other features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry roomGas hookup in laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $95,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $95,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $95,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $95,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $95,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $95,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $95,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $95,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $95,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $95,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $95,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $95,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $95,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $95,000 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $95,000 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $95,000 Active 60 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $95,000 Active 59 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $95,000 Active 58 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $95,000 Active 57 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $95,000 Active 56 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 55 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 54 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 53 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $95,000 Active 52 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 51 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 50 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $95,000 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $95,000 Active 44 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $95,000 Active 43 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $95,000 Active 42 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $95,000 Active 40 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $95,000 Active 38 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    price $95,000 Active 33 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $105,000 Active 33 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $105,000 Active 32 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $105,000 Active 31 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 24 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,721
• − Management: −$1,721
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $8,088
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,941
• After-tax cash flow: $7,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,680–$23,040 screening

This well-maintained double-wide mobile home in an all-ages community offers spacious living areas and a functional layout. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and cleaning the gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virginia Parks Elementary Middle Mae Hensley Junior High High Ceres High F CA #618/1,170 Nat'l #9,639/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 579,493 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,498
• Household income: $58,275
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 40% White 13% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.77%
• Current HPI: 360.246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located near Mitchell Rd; address 2845 E Hatch Rd #5, Modesto, CA 95351
• Financial info: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No homeowners associationNot a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parkingDeck parkingGuest parking available
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable availableInternet available220-volt outlet in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in parkDouble wideBuilt in 1970
• Construction: Metal skirtingLakewood manufactured home
• Exterior features: Corner locationClose to clubhouseRoof: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric ovenBuilt-in gas rangeRange hood
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsJetted tubShower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Wall unitsWindow unitsOther heating
• Interior features: Laminate countertopsDining and family room combinedLiving room with flexible/other features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry roomGas hookup in laundry