215 Tolman Creek Rd Spc 10 · Ashland, OR 97520

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,431 sqft · Land public records · 339 Days on market

Built 1985 $70/sqft · at area comps Est $102k · at est. ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled toward the back of Tolman Creek Park, you'll find this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Most of the interior has recently been painted. The light filled primary bedroom is separated from the two guests rooms. There are laminate wood floors in the living area, primary bedroom, hallway and 2nd bedroom, with carpet in the 3rd room. The primary bath has a new shower plus a tub. The stacked washer/dryer in the laundry room is included. There are mature evergreens in the backyard that gives a woodsy feel and privacy. The park offers a grassy park area for outdoor gatherings or just relaxing. Tolman Creek Mobile Park, an all ages park, provides affordable living in Ashland with easy access to shopping, restaurants and the YMCA. Space rent is $800 a month and includes water and sewer.

Key facts

• Laminate wood floors
• French door
• Bay window

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• FRENCH DOOR
• BAY WINDOW
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 2.1% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#42 in OR, #1,019 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Ashland SD 5 (suburban): math 59% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #5 of 183 in OR (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 339 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 339 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.55%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,402
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -2.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $54,462
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $130,378
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97520

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,040/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $1,156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $826

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
295 Tolman Creek Rd Ashland, OR	2.0	2.0	988	$1,995	$2.02	13d	1	0.14mi
45 Crocker St Ashland, OR	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,350	$1.46	43d	1	0.15mi
2221 Dollarhide Way Ashland, OR	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,350	$1.41	21d	1	0.20mi
2976 Grizzly Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,350	$1.74	21d	1	0.63mi
593 Oak Knoll Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,600	$1.62	13d	1	0.72mi
791 Faith Ave Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,600	$1.83	21d	1	0.74mi
706 Normal Ave Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	43d	1	0.75mi
706 Normal Ave Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	13d	1	0.75mi
732 Normal Ave Unit 732 Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1111	$1,895	$1.71	13d	1	0.75mi
826 Park St Unit 826 Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1234	$1,995	$1.62	21d	1	0.80mi
2555 Spring Hill Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,300	$1.48	43d	1	0.80mi
2080 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	882	$1,500	$1.70	21d	1	0.87mi
854 Twin Pines Cir #12 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	896	$1,700	$1.90	13d	1	0.91mi
2370 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1252	$1,995	$1.59	13d	1	0.96mi
139 N Wightman St Ashland, OR	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,250	$1.85	43d	1	1.16mi
77 California St Unit 5 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,150	$1.12	43d	1	1.19mi
93 California St Ashland, OR	3.0	1.0	1132	$2,095	$1.85	21d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 339 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 338 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 337 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 336 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 335 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 333 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 332 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 330 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 329 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 328 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $100,000 Active 327 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 324 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 323 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 322 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 321 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 320 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 319 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    status Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Nestled toward the back of Tolman Creek Park, you'll find this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Most of the interior has recently been painted. The light filled primary bedroom is separated from the two guests rooms. There are laminate wood floors in the living area, primary bedroom, hallway and 2nd bedroom, with carpet in the 3rd room. The primary bath has a new shower plus a tub. The stacked washer/dryer in the laundry room is included. There are mature evergreens in the backyard that gives a woodsy feel and privacy. The park offers a grassy park area for outdoor gatherings or just relaxing. Tolman Creek Mobile Park, an all ages park, provides affordable living in Ashland with easy access to shopping, restaurants and the YMCA. Space rent is $800 a month and includes water and sewer.

19. 2026-04-16
    status Pending 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Nestled toward the back of Tolman Creek Park, you'll find this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Most of the interior has recently been painted. The light filled primary bedroom is separated from the two guests rooms. There are laminate wood floors in the living area, primary bedroom, hallway and 2nd bedroom, with carpet in the 3rd room. The primary bath has a new shower plus a tub. The stacked washer/dryer in the laundry room is included. There are mature evergreens in the backyard that gives a woodsy feel and privacy. The park offers a grassy park area for outdoor gatherings or just relaxing. Tolman Creek Mobile Park, an all ages park, provides affordable living in Ashland with easy access to shopping, restaurants and the YMCA. Space rent is $800 a month and includes water and sewer.

20. 2026-04-13
    price $110,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Nestled toward the back of Tolman Creek Park, you'll find this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Most of the interior has recently been painted. The light filled primary bedroom is separated from the two guests rooms. There are laminate wood floors in the living area, primary bedroom, hallway and 2nd bedroom, with carpet in the 3rd room. The primary bath has a new shower plus a tub. The stacked washer/dryer in the laundry room is included. There are mature evergreens in the backyard that gives a woodsy feel and privacy. The park offers a grassy park area for outdoor gatherings or just relaxing. Tolman Creek Mobile Park, an all ages park, provides affordable living in Ashland with easy access to shopping, restaurants and the YMCA. Space rent is $800 a month and includes water and sewer.

21. 2026-03-09
    price $115,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Nestled toward the back of Tolman Creek Park, you'll find this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Most of the interior has recently been painted. The light filled primary bedroom is separated from the two guests rooms. There are laminate wood floors in the living area, primary bedroom, hallway and 2nd bedroom, with carpet in the 3rd room. The primary bath has a new shower plus a tub. The stacked washer/dryer in the laundry room is included. There are mature evergreens in the backyard that gives a woodsy feel and privacy. The park offers a grassy park area for outdoor gatherings or just relaxing. Tolman Creek Mobile Park, an all ages park, provides affordable living in Ashland with easy access to shopping, restaurants and the YMCA. Space rent is $800 a month and includes water and sewer.

22. 2025-11-06
    price $119,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Nestled toward the back of Tolman Creek Park, you'll find this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Most of the interior has recently been painted. The light filled primary bedroom is separated from the two guests rooms. There are laminate wood floors in the living area, primary bedroom, hallway and 2nd bedroom, with carpet in the 3rd room. The primary bath has a new shower plus a tub. The stacked washer/dryer in the laundry room is included. There are mature evergreens in the backyard that gives a woodsy feel and privacy. The park offers a grassy park area for outdoor gatherings or just relaxing. Tolman Creek Mobile Park, an all ages park, provides affordable living in Ashland with easy access to shopping, restaurants and the YMCA. Space rent is $800 a month and includes water and sewer.

23. 2025-10-06
    price $121,900 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Nestled toward the back of Tolman Creek Park, you'll find this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Most of the interior has recently been painted. The light filled primary bedroom is separated from the two guests rooms. There are laminate wood floors in the living area, primary bedroom, hallway and 2nd bedroom, with carpet in the 3rd room. The primary bath has a new shower plus a tub. The stacked washer/dryer in the laundry room is included. There are mature evergreens in the backyard that gives a woodsy feel and privacy. The park offers a grassy park area for outdoor gatherings or just relaxing. Tolman Creek Mobile Park, an all ages park, provides affordable living in Ashland with easy access to shopping, restaurants and the YMCA. Space rent is $800 a month and includes water and sewer.

24. 2025-09-03
    price $132,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Nestled toward the back of Tolman Creek Park, you'll find this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Most of the interior has recently been painted. The light filled primary bedroom is separated from the two guests rooms. There are laminate wood floors in the living area, primary bedroom, hallway and 2nd bedroom, with carpet in the 3rd room. The primary bath has a new shower plus a tub. The stacked washer/dryer in the laundry room is included. There are mature evergreens in the backyard that gives a woodsy feel and privacy. The park offers a grassy park area for outdoor gatherings or just relaxing. Tolman Creek Mobile Park, an all ages park, provides affordable living in Ashland with easy access to shopping, restaurants and the YMCA. Space rent is $800 a month and includes water and sewer.

25. 2025-07-09
    listed $142,000 Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Nestled toward the back of Tolman Creek Park, you'll find this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Most of the interior has recently been painted. The light filled primary bedroom is separated from the two guests rooms. There are laminate wood floors in the living area, primary bedroom, hallway and 2nd bedroom, with carpet in the 3rd room. The primary bath has a new shower plus a tub. The stacked washer/dryer in the laundry room is included. There are mature evergreens in the backyard that gives a woodsy feel and privacy. The park offers a grassy park area for outdoor gatherings or just relaxing. Tolman Creek Mobile Park, an all ages park, provides affordable living in Ashland with easy access to shopping, restaurants and the YMCA. Space rent is $800 a month and includes water and sewer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,040
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,198
• − Management: −$2,198
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $13,030
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,127
• After-tax cash flow: $10,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashland SD 5
• NCES district ID: 4101560
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,917
• Composite: 57.0/100
• National rank: #2358
• State rank: #5 of 183 in OR

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #1019

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, OR
• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 26,512
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 26,512
• Household income: $67,948
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1727.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.69%
• Current HPI: 231.9587
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.69%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-22.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-04-16 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $110,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $115,000 MLSCO
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $119,000 MLSCO
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $121,900 MLSCO
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $132,000 MLSCO
• 2025-07-09 Listed $142,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,040 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.