303 Vista Ridge Dr · Venus, TX 76084

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1998 8,451 sqft lot $196/sqft · 10% below area Est $249k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single-story home offering a functional layout and great natural light throughout. Nestled on a spacious lot with mature trees, the inviting curb appeal is complemented by a covered entry and attached garage. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept living and dining area with wood-style flooring. The kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a full suite of appliances—all included—making this home truly move-in ready, with easy access to the backyard for everyday living or entertaining. The primary living area flows seamlessly, creating a comfortable and versatile space. Bedrooms are well-sized with good closet space, while the bathrooms offer practical layouts and vanity storage. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience with built-in shelving. Recent updates include a new AC and heating system professionally installed in 2024 and backed by a 10-year warranty, providing peace of mind for years to come. Additional highlights include fiber internet availability and the benefit of no HOA. Step outside to a private backyard with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings. The yard offers plenty of room for pets, play, or future improvements. Located within walking distance to schools and parks and conveniently close to shopping and major roadways, this home combines comfort and convenience. Welcome home!

Key facts

• 8,451 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-836/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,820 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,485
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -9.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Vista Ridge Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+2%)	3mo	$259,900	$221	92
308 Fairfield Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+3%)	18mo	$257,000	$217	76
206 Meadow Ridge Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,114 (-3%)	18mo	$248,999	$224	74
300 Newfield St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,183 (+3%)	21mo	$255,000	$216	72
305 Ridge Hollow Trl	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,086 (-5%)	14mo	$244,000	$225	70
706 S Walnut St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,177 (+3%)	8mo	$175,000	$149	66
202 W 8th St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,128 (-2%)	10mo	$175,000	$155	65
108 8th St Unit 108	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,200 (+5%)	15mo	$250,000	$208	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $77,447
• Equity at exit: $160,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $225,781
• Equity at exit: $309,559

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$406 /mo · $4,874/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,126

Max offer price $212,694

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $58	-5% $-6	+0% $-70	+5% $-133	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-150	+0% $-70	+5% $11	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-12	base $-70	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
721 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	0d	1	1.16mi
728 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	16d	1	1.16mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,250	$1.14	0d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-10
   listed $225,000 Active 1397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1397 chars)

   Charming single-story home offering a functional layout and great natural light throughout. Nestled on a spacious lot with mature trees, the inviting curb appeal is complemented by a covered entry and attached garage. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept living and dining area with wood-style flooring. The kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a full suite of appliances—all included—making this home truly move-in ready, with easy access to the backyard for everyday living or entertaining. The primary living area flows seamlessly, creating a comfortable and versatile space. Bedrooms are well-sized with good closet space, while the bathrooms offer practical layouts and vanity storage. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience with built-in shelving. Recent updates include a new AC and heating system professionally installed in 2024 and backed by a 10-year warranty, providing peace of mind for years to come. Additional highlights include fiber internet availability and the benefit of no HOA. Step outside to a private backyard with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings. The yard offers plenty of room for pets, play, or future improvements. Located within walking distance to schools and parks and conveniently close to shopping and major roadways, this home combines comfort and convenience. Welcome home!

2. 2006-01-31
   soldstatus
3. 2001-06-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,874 · $406/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,874 · $406/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,874
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,105
• After-tax cash flow: $269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2006-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,874 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.