35589 Occohannock Dr · Belle Haven, VA 23306

$289,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 276 Days on market

Built 1998 1.39 ac lot $251/sqft · 22% below area Est $369k · 22% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A charming well maintained ranch home on a beautiful park like 1.39 acre lot is available to those looking for 3 bedroom home with large bedrooms, a cooks kitchen and a sun drenched living room. A dining area is perfect for hosting those special moments. Recent up dates include a new roof, new vinyl siding and new mini splits! A detached 2 car garage and a shed are perfect for all your toys!!

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Park like lot
• Cooks kitchen

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• PARK LIKE LOT
• COOKS KITCHEN
• SUN DRENCHED LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-844 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (51.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (59.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (59.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.8% in Belle Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#89 in VA, #2,931 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,358 (59.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.53%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 20.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,700
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -21.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35474 Occohannock Dr	0.20mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,014 (-12%)	24mo	$275,000	$271	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $63,173
• Equity at exit: $217,439

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $222,936
• Equity at exit: $429,607

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23306

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 20.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $922/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,252

Max offer price $139,868

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 271 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $289,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,000 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,000 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 261 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 260 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 259 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 258 DOM
16. 2026-03-16
    price $289,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    A charming well maintained ranch home on a beautiful park like 1.39 acre lot is available to those looking for 3 bedroom home with large bedrooms, a cooks kitchen and a sun drenched living room. A dining area is perfect for hosting those special moments. Recent up dates include a new roof, new vinyl siding and new mini splits! A detached 2 car garage and a shed are perfect for all your toys!!

17. 2025-11-28
    price $299,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    A charming well maintained ranch home on a beautiful park like 1.39 acre lot is available to those looking for 3 bedroom home with large bedrooms, a cooks kitchen and a sun drenched living room. A dining area is perfect for hosting those special moments. Recent up dates include a new roof, new vinyl siding and new mini splits! A detached 2 car garage and a shed are perfect for all your toys!!

18. 2025-09-30
    price $319,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    A charming well maintained ranch home on a beautiful park like 1.39 acre lot is available to those looking for 3 bedroom home with large bedrooms, a cooks kitchen and a sun drenched living room. A dining area is perfect for hosting those special moments. Recent up dates include a new roof, new vinyl siding and new mini splits! A detached 2 car garage and a shed are perfect for all your toys!!

19. 2025-09-15
    listed $339,000 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    A charming well maintained ranch home on a beautiful park like 1.39 acre lot is available to those looking for 3 bedroom home with large bedrooms, a cooks kitchen and a sun drenched living room. A dining area is perfect for hosting those special moments. Recent up dates include a new roof, new vinyl siding and new mini splits! A detached 2 car garage and a shed are perfect for all your toys!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,370 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,448/yr (+$121/mo · 157.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$922
• − Insurance: −$2,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,136
• − Management: −$1,136
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$15,829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,799
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Belle Haven

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2931

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,205
• Population (ZIP): 1,122

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 13% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.89%
• Current HPI: 165.2007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-14.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $289,000 ESAR
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $299,000 ESAR
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $319,000 ESAR
• 2025-09-15 Listed $339,000 ESAR

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $922 · +28.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.