2203 Seven Oaks Blvd · Tomball, TX 77375

$265,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,872 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2024 4,101 sqft lot Est $277k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $100 HOA
• Built 2024
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by Crest Managenent; Annual HOA fee of $1,200 covering grounds maintenance; Community dog park

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; 2-story home; Built in 2024; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (23 x 14); Bedroom on second floor (10 x 12); Bedroom on second floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom on second floor (12 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room on second floor (7 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grand Oaks El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 979 students, 29% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 666 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $212,114 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,056
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11906 Amber Oak Way #4	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,820 (-3%)	1mo	$250,000	$137	94
11902 Amber Oak Way	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,800 (-4%)	2mo	$255,000	$142	91
11910 Outer Bark Dr #15	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,903 (+2%)	6mo	$279,990	$147	88
11918 Outer Bark Dr #15	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,792 (-4%)	3mo	$249,990	$140	86
11914 Outer Bark Dr #15	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,713 (-8%)	4mo	$249,990	$146	78
11906 Outer Bark Dr #15	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,684 (-10%)	2mo	$249,990	$148	78
11902 Outer Bark Dr #15	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,713 (-8%)	6mo	$279,990	$163	76
2302 Memory Oaks Dr #11	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,705 (-9%)	8mo	$248,990	$146	75
11922 Outer Bark Dr #15	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,689 (-10%)	6mo	$279,990	$166	74
2314 Memory Oak Dr #11	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,708 (-9%)	11mo	$254,990	$149	72
2310 Memory Oaks Dr #11	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,703 (-9%)	12mo	$279,990	$164	71
2238 Memory Oaks Drs #11	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,679 (-10%)	10mo	$264,990	$158	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-68,605
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-109,739
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77375

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 666
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$538 /mo · $6,451/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,706

Max offer price $212,114

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-149	-5% $-224	+0% $-299	+5% $-374	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-483	-5% $-391	+0% $-299	+5% $-207	+10% $-116
Rate	-1.0pp $-166	-0.5pp $-232	base $-299	+0.5pp $-368	+1.0pp $-438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12817 S Winding Pines Dr Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2106	$2,600	$1.23	0d	1	0.84mi
12911 Pine Meadows St Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,711	$1.19	0d	1	0.91mi
12031 Canyon Falls Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.5	2256	$3,000	$1.33	45d	1	1.13mi
11201 Boudreaux Cir Tomball, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,799	$1.68	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-21
   listed $265,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,451 · $538/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,451 · $538/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$6,451
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,234
• − Management: −$2,234
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$8,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,938
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tomball, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,311
• Household income: $102,488
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.81%
• Current HPI: 233.6155
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+944.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,451 · +944.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.