1747 Road 5708 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$140,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 1999 Good condition 10,018 sqft lot $92/sqft · 15% below area Est $165k · 15% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated double wide mobile home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered front porch, and a spacious layout. This well maintained home offers inviting living areas, modern updates, and a warm feel throughout. A flex room provides the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or additional sitting area. With plenty of outdoor space to enjoy, this property is a great opportunity for buyers seeking affordable living with comfort, functionality, and charm.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 32 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.52%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,266
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -15.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1342 Road 5703	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,475 (-4%)	7mo	$149,000	$101	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $21,965
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $82,280
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $804/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1964 Road 5714 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	43d	1	0.57mi
1964 Road 5714 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,575	$1.40	7d	1	0.57mi
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	12d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   status $140,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 462-char remark

   Show marketing remark (462 chars)

   Updated double wide mobile home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered front porch, and a spacious layout. This well maintained home offers inviting living areas, modern updates, and a warm feel throughout. A flex room provides the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or additional sitting area. With plenty of outdoor space to enjoy, this property is a great opportunity for buyers seeking affordable living with comfort, functionality, and charm.

8. 2026-04-19
   listed $140,000 Active 462-char remark

   Show marketing remark (462 chars)

   Updated double wide mobile home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered front porch, and a spacious layout. This well maintained home offers inviting living areas, modern updates, and a warm feel throughout. A flex room provides the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or additional sitting area. With plenty of outdoor space to enjoy, this property is a great opportunity for buyers seeking affordable living with comfort, functionality, and charm.

9. 2026-04-18
   historical $140,000 462-char remark

   Show marketing remark (462 chars)

   Updated double wide mobile home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a covered front porch, and a spacious layout. This well maintained home offers inviting living areas, modern updates, and a warm feel throughout. A flex room provides the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or additional sitting area. With plenty of outdoor space to enjoy, this property is a great opportunity for buyers seeking affordable living with comfort, functionality, and charm.

10. 2023-05-26
    historical
11. 2023-03-27
    price $180,000
12. 2023-03-09
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $804 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,758/yr (+$147/mo · 218.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$804
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $6,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,466
• After-tax cash flow: $6,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained double-wide mobile home offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New windows and doors — New windows and doors improve energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New windows and doors — New windows and doors improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $140,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-27 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-09 Listed $185,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $804 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.