1907 Keltys St · Lufkin, TX 75904

$47,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1962 6,250 sqft lot $48/sqft · 42% below area Est $83k · 42% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a cute 3 bedroom one bath home with a quaint kitchen and living room. Sitting on a city lot close to everything!

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 3.6% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $331 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,589 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.97%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,160
• List price: $47,900
• Delta: -42.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $32,133
• Equity at exit: $7,142

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $79,500
• Equity at exit: $4,142

Cash invested: $13,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$251
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,379/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $489

Max offer price $47,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,975
• Closing costs: $1,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1214 Lotus Ln Lufkin, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$900	$1.01	43d	1	1.06mi
310 Cousart St Lufkin, TX	3.0	1.0	952	$1,100	$1.16	43d	1	1.29mi
810 Ellis Ave Lufkin, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$950	$1.32	43d	1	1.30mi
3301 Lotus Ln Lufkin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	734	$1,145	$1.56	43d	3	1.31mi
3507 N John Redditt Dr Unit 2-22 Lufkin, TX	2.0	1.0	915	$1,001	$1.09	43d	1	1.45mi
3507 N John Redditt Dr Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1086	$1,152	$1.06	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $47,900 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,900 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,900 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,900 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $47,900 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,900 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $47,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $47,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $47,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $47,900 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,900 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,900 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,900 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $47,900 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $49,900 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    This is a cute 3 bedroom one bath home with a quaint kitchen and living room. Sitting on a city lot close to everything!

18. 2026-03-27
    price $57,500 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    This is a cute 3 bedroom one bath home with a quaint kitchen and living room. Sitting on a city lot close to everything!

19. 2026-02-25
    listed $59,900 Active 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    This is a cute 3 bedroom one bath home with a quaint kitchen and living room. Sitting on a city lot close to everything!

20. 1985-12-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,379 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,379 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,683
• − Property taxes: −$1,379
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,229
• − Management: −$1,229
• − Depreciation: −$1,393
• Taxable income: $7,213
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,731
• After-tax cash flow: $5,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lufkin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,009
• Composite: 32.81/100
• National rank: #5625
• State rank: #446 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lufkin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #5792

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lufkin, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• City population: 62,696
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1159.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $49,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $57,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $59,900 HARMLS
• 1985-12-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,379 · +52.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.