1907 Keltys St · Lufkin, TX 75904

$42,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 202 Days on market

Built 1962 Fair condition 6,250 sqft lot $43/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a cute 3 bedroom one bath home with a quaint kitchen and living room. Sitting on a city lot close to everything!

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 3.4% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Trout Pri (252 students, 95% FRL); Lufkin Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,487 students, 89% FRL); Lufkin H S (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,135 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 68% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,752 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.84%
• DSCR: 3.57
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,466
• List price: $42,900
• Delta: -64.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
333 Humason Ave	1.25mi	3/2.0	1,008 (+1%)	5mo	$89,000	$88	56
816 Oquinn Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	912 (-9%)	44mo	$45,000	$49	45
1507 Keltys	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,223 (+22%)	21mo	$139,900	$114	41
1402 Murphy Ave	1.77mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (+29%)	2mo	$149,000	$116	33
111 Hemlock Rd	2.04mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+26%)	3mo	$149,000	$118	33
509 Ward St	2.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	718 (-28%)	5mo	$127,000	$177	31
300 Duncan Ave	1.51mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,194 (+19%)	13mo	$135,000	$113	22
1410 Mathews St	1.67mi	3/1.0	1,291 (+29%)	51mo	$139,900	$108	20
321 Humason Ave	1.22mi	2/1.5 (-1)	882 (-12%)	38mo	$55,000	$62	18
709 Culverhouse St	0.82mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+23%)	23mo	$124,900	$101	17
2312 Northwood St	1.72mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+17%)	42mo	$70,000	$60	16
2016 Spence St	1.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-16%)	30mo	$19,900	$24	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $29,980
• Equity at exit: $6,397

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $73,817
• Equity at exit: $3,709

Cash invested: $12,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $84,999 ($85/sqft)
• Median days on market: 158 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +41.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,379/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $453

Max offer price $42,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $603	-5% $591	+0% $579	+5% $567	+10% $555
Rent	-10% $485	-5% $532	+0% $579	+5% $626	+10% $673
Rate	-1.0pp $601	-0.5pp $590	base $579	+0.5pp $568	+1.0pp $557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,725
• Closing costs: $1,287
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
802 Abney Ave Unit D Lufkin, TX	2.0	1.0	920	$875	$0.95	5d	1	0.78mi
519 N Bonner St Unit 519 Lufkin, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$800	$1.07	5d	1	0.93mi
1214 Lotus Ln Lufkin, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$900	$1.01	139d	1	1.06mi
3300 Lotus Ln #3 Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,245	$1.02	4d	1	1.25mi
310 Cousart St Lufkin, TX	3.0	1.0	952	$1,100	$1.16	139d	1	1.29mi
810 Ellis Ave Lufkin, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$950	$1.32	139d	1	1.30mi
3301 Lotus Ln Lufkin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	734	$1,145	$1.56	1d	3	1.31mi
3507 N John Redditt Dr Unit 2-22 Lufkin, TX	2.0	1.0	915	$1,001	$1.09	139d	1	1.45mi
3507 N John Redditt Dr Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1086	$1,152	$1.06	139d	1	1.46mi
3507 N John Redditt Dr Lufkin, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,211	$1.21	1d	10	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $42,900 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $42,900 Active 201 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $42,900 Active 199 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $42,900 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $42,900 Active 196 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $42,900 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $42,900 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $42,900 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $42,900 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $42,900 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $42,900 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $42,900 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $42,900 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $42,900 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $45,500 Active 181 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $45,500 Active 178 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $45,500 Active 177 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $45,500 Active 176 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $45,500 Active 175 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $45,500 Active 174 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    statusdays on market $45,500 Active 173 DOM
22. 2026-08-16
    status $45,500 Pending 172 DOM
23. 2026-08-16
    days on market $45,500 Active 172 DOM
24. 2026-08-15
    days on market $45,500 Active 171 DOM
25. 2026-08-14
    days on market $45,500 Active 170 DOM
26. 2026-08-13
    days on market $45,500 Active 169 DOM
27. 2026-08-12
    days on market $45,500 Active 168 DOM
28. 2026-08-11
    days on market $45,500 Active 167 DOM
29. 2026-08-10
    days on market $45,500 Active 166 DOM
30. 2026-08-09
    days on market $45,500 Active 165 DOM
31. 2026-08-08
    days on market $45,500 Active 164 DOM
32. 2026-08-07
    days on market $45,500 Active 163 DOM
33. 2026-08-06
    days on market $45,500 Active 162 DOM
34. 2026-08-05
    days on market $45,500 Active 161 DOM
35. 2026-08-04
    days on market $45,500 Active 160 DOM
36. 2026-08-03
    days on market $45,500 Active 159 DOM
37. 2026-07-31
    days on market $45,500 Active 156 DOM
38. 2026-07-29
    days on market $45,500 Active 154 DOM
39. 2026-07-27
    days on market $45,500 Active 152 DOM
40. 2026-07-25
    days on market $45,500 Active 150 DOM
41. 2026-07-23
    days on market $45,500 Active 148 DOM
42. 2026-07-22
    days on market $45,500 Active 147 DOM
43. 2026-07-21
    days on market $45,500 Active 146 DOM
44. 2026-07-18
    days on market $45,500 Active 143 DOM
45. 2026-07-16
    days on market $45,500 Active 141 DOM
46. 2026-07-16
    days on market $45,500 Active 140 DOM
47. 2026-07-14
    pricedays on market $45,500 Active 139 DOM
48. 2026-07-13
    days on market $47,900 Active 138 DOM
49. 2026-07-12
    days on market $47,900 Active 137 DOM
50. 2026-07-11
    days on market $47,900 Active 136 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,379 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,379 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,403
• − Property taxes: −$1,379
• − Insurance: −$214
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − Depreciation: −$1,248
• Taxable income: $6,708
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,610
• After-tax cash flow: $5,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $25,000–$45,000 screening

This home requires moderate renovations, including painting, replacing siding, and landscaping, to improve its appearance and increase its value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $60,000–$180,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — No roof visible in photos
• Major Windows (windows) — No windows visible in photos
• Major Electrical (electrical) — No electrical panel visible in photos
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — No plumbing fixtures visible in photos
• Major Exterior (exterior) — No exterior walls or siding visible in photos
• Major Other — No other components visible in photos

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Peeling paint on exterior and interior
• Major Siding — Exposed siding
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace siding — New siding improves home's appearance and durability ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Brookhollow El F TX #2,208/4,322 Nat'l #24,614/41,679 High Lufkin H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lufkin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,009
• Composite: 32.81/100
• National rank: #5625
• State rank: #446 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Lufkin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #5792

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lufkin, TX
• County: Angelina County · 90,174 people
• City population: 62,696
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

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Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $49,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $57,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $59,900 HARMLS
• 1985-12-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,379 · +52.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.