459 Mays Valley Rd · Oak Ridge, TN 37748

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2010 ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New carpet, new vinyl, new stainless appliances, freshly painted. This home is move in ready. Walk in closets in every room. Large step in shower in master bath. Room to roam on the 1.6 acres. Seller offering a one year home warranty through First American Home Warranty. OWNER/AGENT

Key facts

• 1.6 acres
• Fenced in front yard
• Walk in closets

Tags

• 1.6 ACRES
• FENCED IN FRONT YARD
• WALK IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($195/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Oak Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#4 in TN, #2,605 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F.
• Roane County (town): math 30% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #64 of 139 in TN (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 229 units permitted in Roane County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roane County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 160% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $195k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,757 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-30,661
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,766
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37748

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $566/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,457

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $71	+0% $16	+5% $-39	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-42	+0% $16	+5% $75	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $66	base $16	+0.5pp $-34	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2018-06-21
   soldstatus $77,000
2. 2018-05-30
   soldstatus $77,000 Closed 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   New carpet, new vinyl, new stainless appliances, freshly painted. This home is move in ready. Walk in closets in every room. Large step in shower in master bath. Room to roam on the 1.6 acres. Seller offering a one year home warranty through First American Home Warranty. OWNER/AGENT

3. 2018-05-30
   soldstatus $77,000 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   New carpet, new vinyl, new stainless appliances, freshly painted. This home is move in ready. Walk in closets in every room. Large step in shower in master bath. Room to roam on the 1.6 acres. Seller offering a one year home warranty through First American Home Warranty. OWNER/AGENT

4. 2018-03-08
   historical Pending - Continue to Show 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   New carpet, new vinyl, new stainless appliances, freshly painted. This home is move in ready. Walk in closets in every room. Large step in shower in master bath. Room to roam on the 1.6 acres. Seller offering a one year home warranty through First American Home Warranty. OWNER/AGENT

5. 2017-08-10
   listed $74,900 Active 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   New carpet, new vinyl, new stainless appliances, freshly painted. This home is move in ready. Walk in closets in every room. Large step in shower in master bath. Room to roam on the 1.6 acres. Seller offering a one year home warranty through First American Home Warranty. OWNER/AGENT

6. 2017-08-09
   price $69,900 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   New carpet, new vinyl, new stainless appliances, freshly painted. This home is move in ready. Walk in closets in every room. Large step in shower in master bath. Room to roam on the 1.6 acres. Seller offering a one year home warranty through First American Home Warranty. OWNER/AGENT

7. 2017-08-09
   price $77,900 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   New carpet, new vinyl, new stainless appliances, freshly painted. This home is move in ready. Walk in closets in every room. Large step in shower in master bath. Room to roam on the 1.6 acres. Seller offering a one year home warranty through First American Home Warranty. OWNER/AGENT

8. 2009-11-03
   listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $566 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$818/yr (+$68/mo · 144.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$566
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,243
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$778
• After-tax cash flow: $973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roane County
• NCES district ID: 4703590
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,611
• Composite: 25.0/100
• National rank: #7557
• State rank: #64 of 139 in TN

Livability — Oak Ridge

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #2605

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 33,038
• Population (ZIP): 17,021

Population outlook (Roane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,652 people
• By 2030: 47,648 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 43,306 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 39,294 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 32,318 · -34.9%
• By 2100: 27,137 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roane

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.5) · D 22.1% · R 76.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -54.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.5 2020: R+50.9 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+41.3 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.78%
• Current HPI: 305.724
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2018-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-30 Sold (MLS) $77,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-30 Sold (MLS) $77,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2018-03-08 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2017-08-10 Listed $74,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2017-08-09 Price Changed $77,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2017-08-09 Price Changed $69,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2009-11-03 Listed $85,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $566 · +70.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.