227 Forest Green Rd · Perryman, MD 21001

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1994 $58/sqft · at area comps Est $67k · at est. $980/mo HOA · 46% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated doublewide in a quiet private community featuring a spacious open floor plan. Recent upgrades include a new roof, HVAC, hot water heater, LVP flooring, lighting, and fresh paint throughout. Renovated kitchen with new appliances and updated bathrooms. Laundry/mudroom with additional storage and washer/dryer included. Split-bedroom layout offers privacy, with the primary suite located opposite the guest rooms and featuring a walk-in closet and updated bath. Recently installed ramp entrance, wide doorways, and walk-in double shower with safety rails. Peaceful lot backs to open space and woods, with off-street parking and additional street parking available. Shed included. Community amenities included in lot rent: water/sewer, trash, snow removal, playground, and basketball area. Located near a wildlife estuary with walking trails, fishing spot, and water views nearby. Park approval required. * Professional Photos will be posted this week *

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1994
• Listed 68 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 5.7% in Perryman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#293 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, commute D+, schools F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.16%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,072
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: 4.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1903 Bennett Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+4%)	4mo	$90,000	$72	80
206 Poclain Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-8%)	12mo	$54,000	$49	62
306 Heron St	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+11%)	4mo	$288,000	$216	59
1922 Fletcher Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	14mo	$89,900	$67	57
1909 Bruce Rd	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,100 (-8%)	19mo	$53,500	$49	57
1912 Perryman Rd	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+11%)	7mo	$300,000	$225	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-1,690
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-2,136
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21001

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$980
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,853

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $256	+0% $231	+5% $207	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $62	-5% $147	+0% $231	+5% $316	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $249	base $231	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $980 · $11,760/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashsnow removal

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $70,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $75,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $89,900 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Beautifully updated doublewide in a quiet private community featuring a spacious open floor plan. Recent upgrades include a new roof, HVAC, hot water heater, LVP flooring, lighting, and fresh paint throughout. Renovated kitchen with new appliances and updated bathrooms. Laundry/mudroom with additional storage and washer/dryer included. Split-bedroom layout offers privacy, with the primary suite located opposite the guest rooms and featuring a walk-in closet and updated bath. Recently installed ramp entrance, wide doorways, and walk-in double shower with safety rails. Peaceful lot backs to open space and woods, with off-street parking and additional street parking available. Shed included. Community amenities included in lot rent: water/sewer, trash, snow removal, playground, and basketball area. Located near a wildlife estuary with walking trails, fishing spot, and water views nearby. Park approval required. * Professional Photos will be posted this week *

16. 2026-05-08
    price $92,500 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Beautifully updated doublewide in a quiet private community featuring a spacious open floor plan. Recent upgrades include a new roof, HVAC, hot water heater, LVP flooring, lighting, and fresh paint throughout. Renovated kitchen with new appliances and updated bathrooms. Laundry/mudroom with additional storage and washer/dryer included. Split-bedroom layout offers privacy, with the primary suite located opposite the guest rooms and featuring a walk-in closet and updated bath. Recently installed ramp entrance, wide doorways, and walk-in double shower with safety rails. Peaceful lot backs to open space and woods, with off-street parking and additional street parking available. Shed included. Community amenities included in lot rent: water/sewer, trash, snow removal, playground, and basketball area. Located near a wildlife estuary with walking trails, fishing spot, and water views nearby. Park approval required. * Professional Photos will be posted this week *

17. 2026-04-29
    price $95,000 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Beautifully updated doublewide in a quiet private community featuring a spacious open floor plan. Recent upgrades include a new roof, HVAC, hot water heater, LVP flooring, lighting, and fresh paint throughout. Renovated kitchen with new appliances and updated bathrooms. Laundry/mudroom with additional storage and washer/dryer included. Split-bedroom layout offers privacy, with the primary suite located opposite the guest rooms and featuring a walk-in closet and updated bath. Recently installed ramp entrance, wide doorways, and walk-in double shower with safety rails. Peaceful lot backs to open space and woods, with off-street parking and additional street parking available. Shed included. Community amenities included in lot rent: water/sewer, trash, snow removal, playground, and basketball area. Located near a wildlife estuary with walking trails, fishing spot, and water views nearby. Park approval required. * Professional Photos will be posted this week *

18. 2026-04-11
    listed $97,000 Active 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Beautifully updated doublewide in a quiet private community featuring a spacious open floor plan. Recent upgrades include a new roof, HVAC, hot water heater, LVP flooring, lighting, and fresh paint throughout. Renovated kitchen with new appliances and updated bathrooms. Laundry/mudroom with additional storage and washer/dryer included. Split-bedroom layout offers privacy, with the primary suite located opposite the guest rooms and featuring a walk-in closet and updated bath. Recently installed ramp entrance, wide doorways, and walk-in double shower with safety rails. Peaceful lot backs to open space and woods, with off-street parking and additional street parking available. Shed included. Community amenities included in lot rent: water/sewer, trash, snow removal, playground, and basketball area. Located near a wildlife estuary with walking trails, fishing spot, and water views nearby. Park approval required. * Professional Photos will be posted this week *

19. 2026-04-11
    historical $97,000 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Beautifully updated doublewide in a quiet private community featuring a spacious open floor plan. Recent upgrades include a new roof, HVAC, hot water heater, LVP flooring, lighting, and fresh paint throughout. Renovated kitchen with new appliances and updated bathrooms. Laundry/mudroom with additional storage and washer/dryer included. Split-bedroom layout offers privacy, with the primary suite located opposite the guest rooms and featuring a walk-in closet and updated bath. Recently installed ramp entrance, wide doorways, and walk-in double shower with safety rails. Peaceful lot backs to open space and woods, with off-street parking and additional street parking available. Shed included. Community amenities included in lot rent: water/sewer, trash, snow removal, playground, and basketball area. Located near a wildlife estuary with walking trails, fishing spot, and water views nearby. Park approval required. * Professional Photos will be posted this week *

20. 2026-04-04
    historical
21. 2026-03-20
    price $109,990
22. 2026-02-21
    price $119,990
23. 2026-02-17
    price $124,900
24. 2025-11-26
    listed $129,900 Active
25. 2025-08-07
    soldstatus $102,000 Closed
26. 2025-07-07
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2025-06-13
    listed $105,000 Active
28. 2025-06-13
    historical $105,000
29. 1994-12-17
    historical
30. 1994-06-17
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − HOA: −$11,760
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$603
• After-tax cash flow: $2,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Perryman

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #15253

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Perryman, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 75
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 27,168
• Household income: $83,238
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 736.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.65%
• Current HPI: 247.668
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-14.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $92,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $97,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-11 Coming Soon $97,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $109,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $119,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $124,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-07 Sold (MLS) $102,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-07 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-13 Coming Soon $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1994-12-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 1994-06-17 Listed — MRIS