727 Live Oak Rd · Hinesville, GA 31313

$195,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1982 0.63 ac lot Est $269k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully Renovated ranch with 5 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. New HVAC, New water heater, New double pane windows through the house. New front porch, new back deck. New stainless steel kitchen appliances. NEW LVP flooring throughout the house. Fresh painting. Metal roof with new gutter.

Key facts

• New front porch
• New hvac
• New water heater

Tags

• RENOVATED RANCH
• NEW HVAC
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• NEW FRONT PORCH
• NEW BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Electric service on property; Electricity connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Level lot; City street frontage; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Double-pane windows; Electric water heater; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Vinyl flooring; No fireplace; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.2% in Hinesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Waldo Pafford Elementary School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #790 of 1,228 statewide, top 65%, 831 students, 70% FRL); Snelson-Golden Middle School (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #372 of 470 statewide, top 80%, 876 students, 76% FRL); Bradwell Institute (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #243 of 424 statewide, top 59%, 1,755 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 54% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.62%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,352
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Nobel Crst	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-2%)	1mo	$267,500	$176	84
212 Augusta Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	4mo	$269,400	$178	71
217 Guyett Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-8%)	1mo	$250,000	$175	68
622 Piedmont Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,363 (-12%)	2mo	$239,999	$176	61
86 Juniper Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,533 (-1%)	3mo	$261,475	$171	58
223 Guyett Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-13%)	3mo	$224,000	$167	56
52 Juniper Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,585 (+2%)	4mo	$274,601	$173	56
603 Amhearst Row	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,492 (-4%)	5mo	$259,500	$174	56
81 Juniper Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+1%)	5mo	$270,875	$173	52
42 Juniper Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,455 (-6%)	4mo	$268,550	$185	50
16 Baylor Bnd	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,609 (+4%)	6mo	$259,825	$161	48
86 Baylor Bnd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,735 (+12%)	6mo	$284,225	$164	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,663
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $52,123
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,219/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Guyett Ave Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1593	$2,000	$1.26	43d	1	0.34mi
1300 Independence Place Dr Hinesville, GA	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	862	$1,738	$2.02	43d	23	0.43mi
511 Wyckfield Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2070	$2,475	$1.20	43d	1	0.55mi
1110 Creekside Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,000	$1.47	43d	1	0.68mi
924 Sanford Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1801	$1,995	$1.11	43d	1	0.70mi
410 Conley Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	3.0	1742	$2,000	$1.15	43d	1	0.76mi
600 Brightleaf Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1603	$2,300	$1.43	43d	1	0.84mi
264 Marron Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1997	$2,200	$1.10	43d	1	0.88mi
945 Ruth Dr Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1910	$1,900	$0.99	43d	1	1.06mi
717 Mill Creek Cir Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1776	$2,200	$1.24	43d	1	1.07mi
712 Mill Creek Cir Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,900	$1.30	43d	1	1.10mi
2538 Cove St Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,650	$1.46	43d	1	1.20mi
960 Gulfstream Rd Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,150	$1.42	43d	1	1.29mi
905 King Air Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,750	$1.24	43d	1	1.32mi
912 Pineland Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,648	$1.15	43d	1	1.34mi
908 Ringneck Way Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,750	$1.15	44d	1	1.35mi
916 Mandarin Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,550	$1.08	43d	1	1.38mi
501 Burke Dr Hinesville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$1,891	$1.67	43d	18	1.41mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $195,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $205,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 6 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 5 DOM
19. 2026-05-25
    listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,219 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$575/yr (+$48/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,219
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $1,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$382
• After-tax cash flow: $4,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 42,838
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1693.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $205,000 HABR

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,219 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.