40745 Mostyn Lake Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$315,305

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,651 sqft · Land · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 4,800 sqft lot $119/sqft · at area comps Est $307k · at est. $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Canton II S offers a spacious two-story open-concept design with a versatile game room perfect for entertaining or relaxing. This thoughtfully designed home features stylish upgrades including a modern backsplash, enhanced cabinetry, stainless steel appliances with a gas range, and elegant under-cabinet lighting. Quartz countertops with undermount sinks create a clean, sophisticated look throughout. The downstairs primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a fiberglass walk-in shower with a semi-frameless glass door for a spa-like feel. Additional highlights include a Wi-Fi-enabled thermostat, LED lighting, Low-E tilt-in windows, tankless gas water heater, structured wiring panel, and radiant barrier roof decking. With 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, ceiling fans in every bedroom, and a covered back patio, this home blends modern upgrades with everyday functionality.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Enhanced cabinetry
• Modern backsplash

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• GAME ROOM
• MODERN BACKSPLASH
• ENHANCED CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $237,417 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,542
• List price: $315,305
• Delta: 2.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $156,787
• Equity at exit: $284,052

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $457,051
• Equity at exit: $612,568

Cash invested: $88,285 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,653
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,911/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,546

Max offer price $291,359

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,826
• Closing costs: $9,459
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: watergasinternet

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 881-char remark

   Show marketing remark (881 chars)

   The Canton II S offers a spacious two-story open-concept design with a versatile game room perfect for entertaining or relaxing. This thoughtfully designed home features stylish upgrades including a modern backsplash, enhanced cabinetry, stainless steel appliances with a gas range, and elegant under-cabinet lighting. Quartz countertops with undermount sinks create a clean, sophisticated look throughout. The downstairs primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a fiberglass walk-in shower with a semi-frameless glass door for a spa-like feel. Additional highlights include a Wi-Fi-enabled thermostat, LED lighting, Low-E tilt-in windows, tankless gas water heater, structured wiring panel, and radiant barrier roof decking. With 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, ceiling fans in every bedroom, and a covered back patio, this home blends modern upgrades with everyday functionality.

2. 2026-04-08
   listed $315,305 Active 881-char remark

   Show marketing remark (881 chars)

   The Canton II S offers a spacious two-story open-concept design with a versatile game room perfect for entertaining or relaxing. This thoughtfully designed home features stylish upgrades including a modern backsplash, enhanced cabinetry, stainless steel appliances with a gas range, and elegant under-cabinet lighting. Quartz countertops with undermount sinks create a clean, sophisticated look throughout. The downstairs primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a fiberglass walk-in shower with a semi-frameless glass door for a spa-like feel. Additional highlights include a Wi-Fi-enabled thermostat, LED lighting, Low-E tilt-in windows, tankless gas water heater, structured wiring panel, and radiant barrier roof decking. With 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, ceiling fans in every bedroom, and a covered back patio, this home blends modern upgrades with everyday functionality.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,911 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,770 · $481/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,859/yr (+$322/mo · 201.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,662
• − Property taxes: −$1,911
• − Insurance: −$1,577
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$9,173
• Taxable loss: −$7,195
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,727
• After-tax cash flow: $100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $315,305 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,911 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.