598 Skaggs Branch Rd · Jellico, TN 40769

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Manufactured · 18 Days on market

Built 2005 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained property on a quiet lot out in the country, only minutes from town and Interstate access. Peaceful country views in all directions, in a nice quiet neighborhood. This 3 Bed 2 Bath home sits on a large desirable, flat and cleared one acre lot, with shade trees in the front and back of the home. The covered porch and covered deck offer the opportunity to sit outside and soak in the countryside, while being protected from the sun or the rain. This home is a must see for anyone looking for a a little calm and serenity.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Covered deck
• Large one acre lot

Tags

• LARGE ONE ACRE LOT
• COVERED PORCH
• COVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-379/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Jellico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#352 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Whitley County (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Boston Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 191 students, 86% FRL); Whitley County Middle School (math 31% / reading 50%, grade F, #57 of 217 statewide, top 26%, 563 students, 80% FRL); Whitley County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 980 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 units permitted in Whitley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whitley County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $150k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,483 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,604
• Equity at exit: $38,058

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,075
• Equity at exit: $41,583

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40769

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $575/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $144,326

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $11	+0% $-32	+5% $-74	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-75	+0% $-32	+5% $12	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $7	base $-32	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Well maintained property on a quiet lot out in the country, only minutes from town and Interstate access. Peaceful country views in all directions, in a nice quiet neighborhood. This 3 Bed 2 Bath home sits on a large desirable, flat and cleared one acre lot, with shade trees in the front and back of the home. The covered porch and covered deck offer the opportunity to sit outside and soak in the countryside, while being protected from the sun or the rain. This home is a must see for anyone looking for a a little calm and serenity.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Active 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Well maintained property on a quiet lot out in the country, only minutes from town and Interstate access. Peaceful country views in all directions, in a nice quiet neighborhood. This 3 Bed 2 Bath home sits on a large desirable, flat and cleared one acre lot, with shade trees in the front and back of the home. The covered porch and covered deck offer the opportunity to sit outside and soak in the countryside, while being protected from the sun or the rain. This home is a must see for anyone looking for a a little calm and serenity.

3. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Well maintained property on a quiet lot out in the country, only minutes from town and Interstate access. Peaceful country views in all directions, in a nice quiet neighborhood. This 3 Bed 2 Bath home sits on a large desirable, flat and cleared one acre lot, with shade trees in the front and back of the home. The covered porch and covered deck offer the opportunity to sit outside and soak in the countryside, while being protected from the sun or the rain. This home is a must see for anyone looking for a a little calm and serenity.

4. 2026-04-08
   listed $149,900 Active 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Well maintained property on a quiet lot out in the country, only minutes from town and Interstate access. Peaceful country views in all directions, in a nice quiet neighborhood. This 3 Bed 2 Bath home sits on a large desirable, flat and cleared one acre lot, with shade trees in the front and back of the home. The covered porch and covered deck offer the opportunity to sit outside and soak in the countryside, while being protected from the sun or the rain. This home is a must see for anyone looking for a a little calm and serenity.

5. 2019-04-25
   soldstatus $79,000 Sold 153-char remark

   Show marketing remark (153 chars)

   Nice, well kept double wide manufactured home on an approximately an acre. Lot has mature landscaping and offers a large play house and storage building.

6. 2019-04-02
   status Pending 153-char remark

   Show marketing remark (153 chars)

   Nice, well kept double wide manufactured home on an approximately an acre. Lot has mature landscaping and offers a large play house and storage building.

7. 2018-12-07
   listed $89,900 Active 153-char remark

   Show marketing remark (153 chars)

   Nice, well kept double wide manufactured home on an approximately an acre. Lot has mature landscaping and offers a large play house and storage building.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $575 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$489/yr (+$41/mo · 85.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$575
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,046
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitley County
• NCES district ID: 2105880
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $29,079
• Composite: 27.87/100
• National rank: #6874
• State rank: #80 of 165 in KY

Livability — Jellico

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #23161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,528
• Population (ZIP): 17,931

Population outlook (Whitley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,362 people
• By 2030: 34,807 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 33,525 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 32,550 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 29,555 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 24,308 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whitley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.3) · D 14.8% · R 84.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.7pp · 2024: -69.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.3 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+57.8 2008: R+47.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.74%
• Current HPI: 163.6801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $149,900 ImagineMLS
• 2019-04-25 Sold (MLS) $79,000 ImagineMLS
• 2019-04-02 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2018-12-07 Listed $89,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $575 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.