El Rancho Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$150,310

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,984 sqft · Manufactured · 318 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the El Rancho 32644A, where timeless design meets everyday functionality. This beautifully crafted 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,984 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space that blends rustic charm with modern flair. From the moment you enter, you're welcomed by a spacious, light-filled living area with a built-in entertainment center and exposed beam ceiling that adds warmth and character. The heart of this home is the oversized kitchen, complete with a large island, farmhouse sink, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space—perfect for everything from weekday dinners to holiday gatherings. A nearby dining area is ideal for sit-down meals or casual breakfasts. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a large walk-in closet and a luxurious ensuite bath featuring dual vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate walk-in shower. On the opposite end of the home, two additional bedrooms and a full bath provide plenty of space. Additional features include a utility room with built-in storage, energy-efficient construction, and designer finishes throughout. Whether you're starting your next chapter or downsizing without compromise, the El Rancho delivers comfort, space, and style at a price that makes sense.

Key facts

• Oversized kitchen
• Farmhouse sink
• Large island

Tags

• BUILT-IN ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
• EXPOSED BEAM CEILING
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $150,310 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $136,956.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $865 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.06%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,956
• List price: $150,310
• Delta: 9.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16607 E Crosby St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,859 (-6%)	11mo	$139,999	$75	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $29,460
• Equity at exit: $20,421

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $82,961
• Equity at exit: $11,841

Cash invested: $38,348 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$171 /mo · $2,054/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $136,956

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,239
• Closing costs: $4,109
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,310 Active 318 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,310 Active 317 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,310 Active 316 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,310 Active 315 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,310 Active 313 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,310 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,310 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,310 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,310 Active 304 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,310 Active 302 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,310 Active 301 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,310 Active 300 DOM
13. 2025-08-04
    listed $150,310 Active 1261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1261 chars)

    Step into the El Rancho 32644A, where timeless design meets everyday functionality. This beautifully crafted 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,984 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space that blends rustic charm with modern flair. From the moment you enter, you're welcomed by a spacious, light-filled living area with a built-in entertainment center and exposed beam ceiling that adds warmth and character. The heart of this home is the oversized kitchen, complete with a large island, farmhouse sink, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space—perfect for everything from weekday dinners to holiday gatherings. A nearby dining area is ideal for sit-down meals or casual breakfasts. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a large walk-in closet and a luxurious ensuite bath featuring dual vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate walk-in shower. On the opposite end of the home, two additional bedrooms and a full bath provide plenty of space. Additional features include a utility room with built-in storage, energy-efficient construction, and designer finishes throughout. Whether you're starting your next chapter or downsizing without compromise, the El Rancho delivers comfort, space, and style at a price that makes sense.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,672
• − Property taxes: −$2,054
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$3,984
• Taxable income: $8,714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,091
• After-tax cash flow: $8,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It has a good roof, exterior siding, flooring, interior walls, windows, foundation, HVAC, and landscaping. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some kitchen appliance upgrades to further increase its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and repainting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale Updating the flooring with a more modern material — A fresh, modern flooring can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and repainting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring with a more modern material — A fresh, modern flooring can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-04 Listed $150,310 Zillow