5200 Cavitt Stallman Rd #6 · Granite Bay, CA 95746

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 732 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition Est $75k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Granite Bay! Maison Chapeaux: an ALL-AGE mobile home park with a space rent of $950, including water and garbage. Offering ONE MONTH of Free space rent! This resort-like community features a community laundry room, centralized mailboxes, a community garden, an acre of open common area, several acres of private nature trails, and a peaceful pond where residents enjoy fishing and feeding the ducks. An outdoor patio area, formerly a basketball court, provides a relaxing space where neighbors gather for coffee and conversation. Tucked away from the main road and surrounded by million-dollar homes, this private community offers a rural, recreational atmosphere while being just minutes from Folso

Key facts

• Open common area
• Community garden
• Peaceful pond

Tags

• COMMUNITY LAUNDRY ROOM
• CENTRALIZED MAILBOXES
• COMMUNITY GARDEN
• OPEN COMMON AREA
• PRIVATE NATURE TRAILS
• PEACEFUL POND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listing shows a land lease amount entry of $950 noted)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Utilities details noted in remarks
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single wide; Built in 1977; Located in a community at 5200 Cavitt Stallman Rd #6, Granite Bay, CA
• Construction: Hillcrest manufactured home
• Exterior features: Metal roof; No notable lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dining space in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Great room living area; Tile shower stall
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.2% vs local median 1.2% in Granite Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#386 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Eureka Union (suburban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #48 of 517 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.00%
• DSCR: 4.96
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,396
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5200 Cavitt Stallman Rd #35	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (-2%)	2mo	$77,550	$108	95
5200 Cavitt Stallman Rd #18	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (-2%)	5mo	$71,900	$100	93
5200 Cavitt Stallman Rd #7	0.00mi	2/2.0	720 (-2%)	6mo	$74,500	$103	88
5200 Cavitt Stallman Rd #3	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-2%)	18mo	$63,500	$88	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $92,890
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.70×
• Total profit: $217,307
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95746

• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $1,661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,717	-5% $1,689	+0% $1,661	+5% $1,634	+10% $1,606
Rent	-10% $1,440	-5% $1,551	+0% $1,661	+5% $1,772	+10% $1,883
Rate	-1.0pp $1,702	-0.5pp $1,682	base $1,661	+0.5pp $1,641	+1.0pp $1,620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $80,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,691
• − Management: −$2,691
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $19,843
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,762
• After-tax cash flow: $15,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good exterior, interior, and landscaping, making it a good investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Inspecting and cleaning gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Inspecting and cleaning gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eureka Union
• NCES district ID: 0613080
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $103,282
• Composite: 62.34/100
• National rank: #695
• State rank: #48 of 517 in CA

Livability — Granite Bay

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #386
• US rank: #13127

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granite Bay, CA
• County: Placer County · 390,510 people
• City population: 22,985
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 22,985
• Household income: $183,305
• Rent vs Own: 11.2% rent · 88.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -664.09%
• Current HPI: 264.5367
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B