7075 Whartons Dock Rd · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$98,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 165 Days on market

Built 2007 5,096 sqft lot $6/mo HOA ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home perfectly situated across the street from the community pool—your own summer retreat just steps away! This well-maintained property features a bright and open living area, a functional kitchen, and cozy bedrooms with ample closet space. The full bath offers comfort and convenience, while the additional half-bath is perfect for guests. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this home offers both comfort and location in one attractive package.

Key facts

• 5,096 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alkek El (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 630 students, 61% FRL); Bandera Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 555 students, 56% FRL); Bandera H S (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 713 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 545 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.36%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $10,819
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $43,702
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 545
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $333/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $745

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $447	+0% $420	+5% $392	+10% $364
Rent	-10% $319	-5% $369	+0% $420	+5% $470	+10% $521
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $445	base $420	+0.5pp $394	+1.0pp $369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
535 Oak Lawn Dr Unit 4 Bandera, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,175	$1.47	26d	1	0.35mi
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	45d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $98,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $98,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $98,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-01-07
    listed $98,000 Active 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home perfectly situated across the street from the community pool—your own summer retreat just steps away! This well-maintained property features a bright and open living area, a functional kitchen, and cozy bedrooms with ample closet space. The full bath offers comfort and convenience, while the additional half-bath is perfect for guests. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this home offers both comfort and location in one attractive package.

15. 2025-12-31
    historical
16. 2025-09-05
    price $99,500
17. 2025-08-06
    status Active
18. 2025-08-05
    historical
19. 2025-07-08
    price $100,000
20. 2025-05-22
    listed $110,000 Active
21. 2025-04-29
    historical
22. 2025-02-28
    price $100,000
23. 2025-02-06
    status Back on Market
24. 2024-12-27
    historical
25. 2024-02-02
    price $120,000
26. 2023-09-20
    price $99,000
27. 2023-08-12
    price $100,000
28. 2023-08-08
    status Back on Market
29. 2023-07-20
    historical
30. 2023-06-29
    price $120,000
31. 2023-06-27
    status Back on Market
32. 2023-06-22
    historical Active Option
33. 2023-04-01
    price $85,000
34. 2022-10-01
    price $99,000
35. 2022-07-20
    listed $120,000 New
36. 1990-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $333 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,793 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,460/yr (+$122/mo · 437.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$333
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $3,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$871
• After-tax cash flow: $4,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Medina Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $98,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $99,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $100,000 LERA
• 2025-02-06 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-12-27 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $120,000 LERA
• 2023-09-20 Price Changed $99,000 LERA
• 2023-08-12 Price Changed $100,000 LERA
• 2023-08-08 Relisted — LERA
• 2023-07-20 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-06-29 Price Changed $120,000 LERA
• 2023-06-27 Relisted — LERA
• 2023-06-22 Contingent — LERA
• 2023-04-01 Price Changed $85,000 LERA
• 2022-10-01 Price Changed $99,000 LERA
• 2022-07-20 Listed $120,000 LERA
• 1990-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $333 · +21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.