511 Mccloud Ct · Jarrell, TX 76537

$189,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $138/sqft · 10% below area Est $211k · 10% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, all of which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion October 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($190/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.9% in Jarrell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,599 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,625
• List price: $189,999
• Delta: -13.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Jones Beach Cv	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-2%)	1mo	$195,999	$145	88
309 Kings Row Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-2%)	1mo	$205,499	$152	87
308 Rancho Del Cielo Loop	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,483 (+8%)	2mo	$208,749	$141	84
523 Mccloud Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,535 (+12%)	1mo	$203,999	$133	80
120 Cattle Queen Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (+3%)	2mo	$229,990	$163	80
522 Mccloud Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (+11%)	1mo	$196,999	$130	76
112 Hasty Heart Ct	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,500 (+9%)	2mo	$219,990	$147	76
513 Texas Angel Way	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (+3%)	2mo	$239,990	$170	74
304 Rancho Del Cielo Loop	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+14%)	2mo	$235,990	$150	73
515 Mccloud Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-13%)	1mo	$164,999	$138	72
453 Jones Beach Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+14%)	2mo	$213,999	$136	66
440 Jones Beach Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+14%)	2mo	$218,999	$139	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-34,993
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-49,299
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 49 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.1 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $211,249 ($143/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1040
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,789

Max offer price $189,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $81	+0% $16	+5% $-50	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-56	+0% $16	+5% $87	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $64	base $16	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	63d	1	0.03mi
124 Hellcats Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	42d	1	0.07mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	119d	1	0.07mi
101 Hellcats Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,450	$1.02	24d	1	0.08mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	116d	1	0.08mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	139d	1	0.08mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	100d	1	0.08mi
511 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1692	$1,725	$1.02	0d	1	0.11mi
136 Jack Browning Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,499	$1.25	24d	1	0.13mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	94d	1	0.16mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	88d	1	0.16mi
505 Sergeant Murphy Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,375	$1.15	42d	1	0.19mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	139d	1	0.20mi
449 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	24d	1	0.21mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	110d	1	0.23mi
256 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,545	$1.07	24d	1	0.25mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	139d	1	0.27mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	98d	1	0.27mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	139d	1	0.28mi
408 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,600	$1.16	24d	1	0.32mi
128 Burt Rainey Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,750	$1.44	80d	1	0.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: Rancho Del CieloHOA fee $100 per monthHOA covers common area maintenanceCommunity playgroundCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connectedPublic waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-storyFaces eastUnder construction
• Construction: Built by LennarBrick, cement siding, HardiPlank-type and stone exteriorComposition/shingle roofSlab foundationEstimated year built by builder
• Exterior features: No exterior stepsBack yardFront yardCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRange
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanMain level primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $189,999 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $189,999 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on market $184,999 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   pricedays on market $181,999 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $186,999 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $186,999 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $186,999 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $186,999 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $186,999 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $186,999 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $186,999 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $186,999 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $186,999 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $186,999 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $186,999 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $186,999 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $186,999 Active 69 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $186,999 Active 66 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $186,999 Active 65 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $186,999 Active 64 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $186,999 Active 63 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $186,999 Active 62 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $186,999 Active 61 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $186,999 Active 60 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $186,999 Active 59 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $186,999 Active 58 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $186,999 Active 57 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $186,999 Active 56 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $186,999 Active 55 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $186,999 Active 54 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $186,999 Active 53 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $186,999 Active 52 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $186,999 Active 51 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $186,999 Active 50 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $186,999 Active 49 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $186,999 Active 48 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $186,999 Active 46 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $186,999 Active 45 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $186,999 Active 44 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $186,999 Active 43 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $186,999 Active 41 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $186,999 Active 40 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $186,999 Active 39 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $186,999 Active 38 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $186,999 Active 35 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $186,999 Active 34 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $186,999 Active 33 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $186,999 Active 32 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $186,999 Active 30 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $186,999 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$705
• After-tax cash flow: $895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,875–$20,625 screening

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes, making it move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: Rancho Del CieloHOA fee $100 per monthHOA covers common area maintenanceCommunity playgroundCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connectedPublic waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-storyFaces eastUnder construction
• Construction: Built by LennarBrick, cement siding, HardiPlank-type and stone exteriorComposition/shingle roofSlab foundationEstimated year built by builder
• Exterior features: No exterior stepsBack yardFront yardCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRange
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanMain level primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-26 Listed $186,999 Unlock MLS