12 Ironwood Rd · Princeton, NJ 08558

$925,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2000 7,645 sqft lot Est $1238k · 25% under $453/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enter this beautiful 3150 sf stucco and stone facade home in the much sought after Clubside at Cherry Valley (55+) active community. This is the largest model in the community and it is situated on a prime lot, backing to woods on a cul de sac. The grand entry opens into a flex room, currently used as an office, with glass French doors. The room has a bay window which lets in so much light, double closets, crown molding and custom blinds. As you continue into this gracious home, there is a large Dining Room with crown molding and chair rail, oversized windows and solid wood floors. The large Great Room with an impressive two-story vaulted ceiling, gas fireplace, wood floors, two ceiling fan

Key facts

• 7,645 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $1,360 quarterly; Senior community with age requirement of 55

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with front entry, inside access, garage door opener and additional storage area; Driveway with 2 parking spaces; Total of 4 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric available; Natural gas available; Cable TV available; Phone available
• Home design: Detached property; Located in a 55+ senior community; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Foundation: block and poured concrete perimeter; Active radon mitigation; Window features include double-hung and sliding windows with double-pane glass and screens
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Above- and below-grade additional structures; Sump pump; Outside entrance to basement

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; Two bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Wood floors; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Full bath on main level; Full bath on upper level
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating (natural gas); Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; 60+ gallon natural gas hot water tank
• Interior features: Stall shower, tub shower and soaking tub; Breakfast area; Chair railings; Formal separate dining room; Ceiling fan(s); Carpet and wood floors; Walk-in closet(s); Entry-level bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $925k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $860k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $875k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $860k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 0.7% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#7 in NJ, #252 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Montgomery Township School District (rural): math 59% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #15 of 472 in NJ (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hill Elementary School (813 students, 6% FRL); Montgomery Upper Middle School (math 55% / reading 77%, grade A-, #19 of 431 statewide, top 5%, 790 students, 5% FRL); Montgomery High School (math 52% / reading 75%, grade B-, #47 of 399 statewide, top 12%, 1,603 students, 4% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 678 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Somerset County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $745k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $859,832 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,237,948
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Ironwood Rd	0.00mi	3/2.5	3,142 (0%)	1mo	$925,000	$294	99
165 Heather Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,218 (+2%)	2mo	$1,260,000	$392	78
11 Valencia Ct	0.27mi	3/2.5	3,028 (-4%)	22mo	$787,000	$260	63
513 Cherry Valley Rd	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,862 (-9%)	4mo	$800,000	$280	59
9 Winged Foot Ct	0.63mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,104 (-1%)	2mo	$1,245,000	$401	58
1 Interlacken Ct	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,688 (-14%)	1mo	$1,250,000	$465	56
8 Wild Dunes Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,384 (+8%)	22mo	$1,180,000	$349	47
3 Pauma Valley Ct	0.70mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,789 (-11%)	11mo	$1,100,000	$394	30
19 Heritage Hills Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,688 (-14%)	14mo	$1,200,000	$446	27
14 Avalon Lakes Ct	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,688 (-14%)	23mo	$1,145,000	$426	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-172,707
• Equity at exit: $137,921

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-177,889
• Equity at exit: $79,977

Cash invested: $259,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08558

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,851
• Tax from tax record: −$1,592 /mo · $19,106/yr
• Insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$453
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,838
• Net cashflow: $-369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,217

Max offer price $859,832

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $-107	+0% $-369	+5% $-631	+10% $-893
Rent	-10% $-1,060	-5% $-715	+0% $-369	+5% $-23	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $-134	base $-369	+0.5pp $-609	+1.0pp $-852

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $231,250
• Closing costs: $27,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Windermere Way Princeton, NJ	4.0	3.5	4359	$8,750	$2.01	15d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $453 · $5,436/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   status Under Contract
3. 2026-04-13
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-04-03
   listed $925,000 Active
5. 2026-04-03
   listed $925,000 Active
6. 2025-12-09
   historical
7. 2025-10-20
   price $945,000
8. 2025-09-25
   listed $995,000 Active
9. 2005-08-25
   soldstatus $745,000
10. 2005-08-22
    soldstatus $745,000
11. 2005-06-25
    historical
12. 2005-06-21
    listed $745,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $19,106 · $1,592/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,069 · $1,756/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,963/yr (+$164/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $105,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,814
• − Property taxes: −$19,106
• − Insurance: −$4,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,400
• − Management: −$8,400
• − HOA: −$5,436
• − Depreciation: −$26,909
• Taxable loss: −$19,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,726
• After-tax cash flow: $299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3410590
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $152,313
• Composite: 64.96/100
• National rank: #506
• State rank: #15 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #252

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 52,921
• Population (ZIP): 7,236

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 356,675 people
• By 2030: 367,194 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 386,571 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 401,708 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 438,898 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 448,170 · +25.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Asian 26% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Chinese 10% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.27%
• Current HPI: 237.858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+24.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — GSMLS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $925,000 GSMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $925,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $945,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $995,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $745,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-22 Sold (MLS) $745,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-06-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-06-21 Listed $745,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $19,106 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.