104 Forest Ln · Hillsboro, TX 76645

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1968 8,276 sqft lot Est $236k · 33% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely established treed neighborhood and excellent floorplan. Spacious living room for family gatherings. Nice shaded backyard the perfect place for cookouts and entertaining on your screen porch. Includes Three Storage Buildings. The home has great space with lots of possibilities. Recent Foundation Repairs.

Key facts

• Three outbuildings
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• 8,276 sq ft lot

Tags

• SCENIC GREEN PASTURES
• THREE OUTBUILDINGS
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Easements for utilities; No known restrictions; Will not subdivide
• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, and VA Loan
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Covered parking; Attached 2-car garage (20' wide x 20' long) with garage facing front; 2-space carport and 4 covered spaces total; Driveway parking; Private on-site parking; 2-car single door garage; Paved and private
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Municipal utility district: No
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Property attached: Yes; Subdivision: Park Terrace; Preowned (built in 1968)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 1968
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Covered porch(es); Private yard; Large backyard with grass; Chain-link and wood fencing; Back yard fenced; Workshop and storage structure on property; Paved parking pad

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Built-in cabinets; Solid-surface (non-natural) counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath; Two additional bedrooms on level 1
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one is primary ensuite) with built-in cabinets and solid-surface counters
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Gas jets; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Paneling; One living area; One dining area; Galley kitchen; Built-in cabinets; Separate utility room; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room / separate laundry room; Built-in cabinets in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.6% in Hillsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#803 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hillsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #370 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hillsboro El (704 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,615 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.45%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,755
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Forest Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-10%)	8mo	$100,000	$73	75
119 Smith St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-2%)	2mo	$270,000	$182	73
306 Craig St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-4%)	6mo	$250,000	$171	69
207 Brazos St	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,632 (+7%)	7mo	$155,000	$95	66
406 Craig St	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,424 (-6%)	1mo	$219,500	$154	61
83 Delmore Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+6%)	10mo	$244,900	$152	55
205 N Waco St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,588 (+4%)	5mo	$49,900	$31	54
705 E Elm St	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (-2%)	10mo	$80,000	$54	54
303 Country Club Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+10%)	5mo	$259,900	$155	52
78 Delmore Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+6%)	16mo	$263,499	$164	50
75 Delmore Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-12%)	11mo	$269,000	$201	47
700 Park Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-11%)	8mo	$269,999	$200	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-946
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $31,500
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76645

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$362 /mo · $4,341/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,597

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $478	-5% $433	+0% $388	+5% $343	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $223	-5% $305	+0% $388	+5% $470	+10% $553
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $428	base $388	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Brazos St Hillsboro, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,200	$1.74	44d	1	0.24mi
114 Garland Dr Hillsboro, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,485	$1.24	44d	1	0.78mi
411 Bond St Hillsboro, TX	2.0	1.0	1342	$1,300	$0.97	22d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 553-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $159,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,341 · $362/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,341 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$4,341
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $2,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$571
• After-tax cash flow: $4,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823280
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,483
• Composite: 35.12/100
• National rank: #5016
• State rank: #370 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hillsboro

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #803
• US rank: #14657

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hillsboro, TX
• City population: 11,321
• Population (ZIP): 11,321

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.83%
• Current HPI: 248.3182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2021-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-18 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-11-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-10-21 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-09-24 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2008-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,341 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.