39 Cox Ln · Montgomery, AL 36110

$4,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1960 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1960
• Listed 33 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $4,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$42,840) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $4k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $775 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $4k).
• Recommended offer: $4k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 238.8% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $28 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $120 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($4k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,880 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 25.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 238.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 830.31%
• DSCR: 37.94
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $42,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 W Michigan Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	840 (0%)	1mo	$67,000	$80	90
429 Edward St	0.19mi	3/1.0	828 (-1%)	1mo	$55,500	$67	88
418 Edwards St	0.21mi	3/1.0	828 (-1%)	3mo	$24,500	$30	85
124 W Michigan Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	840 (0%)	8mo	$60,000	$71	84
412 Edward St	0.21mi	3/1.0	828 (-1%)	6mo	$35,000	$42	83
1625 Champion St	0.53mi	3/1.0	840 (0%)	0mo	$72,500	$86	75
3463 Cotton St	0.53mi	3/1.0	829 (-1%)	10mo	$37,500	$45	65
185 Conley Cir	0.41mi	3/1.0	925 (+10%)	8mo	$38,000	$41	57
121 Kiwanis St	0.47mi	3/1.0	735 (-12%)	1mo	$27,000	$37	57
3560 Manley Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	950 (+13%)	2mo	$60,000	$63	52
298 Broadway St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (+7%)	2mo	$36,000	$40	48
218 Broadway St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+14%)	1mo	$49,000	$51	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 44.51×
• Total profit: $48,727
• Equity at exit: $596

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 95.70×
• Total profit: $106,059
• Equity at exit: $346

Cash invested: $1,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36110

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$21
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $110/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $775

Break-even live

Break-even rent $40

Max offer price $4,000

Occupancy floor 19%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,000
• Closing costs: $120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Garden St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1008	$775	$0.77	44d	1	0.12mi
429 Edward St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	828	$1,080	$1.30	13d	1	0.16mi
412 Edward St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	828	$800	$0.97	43d	1	0.19mi
142 W Michigan Ave Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	13d	1	0.20mi
207 Destin St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	966	$695	$0.72	21d	1	0.23mi
3613 Erwin Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,250	$1.14	43d	1	0.42mi
105 Dyas Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,095	$1.07	43d	1	0.46mi
216 Gardendale Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	21d	1	0.50mi
4010 Vandiver Ct Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	630	$1,050	$1.67	43d	1	0.61mi
408 Briarbrook Dr #204 Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,000	$0.98	43d	1	0.63mi
408 Briarbrook Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1025	$960	$0.94	21d	1	0.63mi
218 Broadway St Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	960	$895	$0.93	13d	1	0.66mi
341 Chisholm St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	756	$1,195	$1.58	21d	1	0.69mi
298 Broadway St Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	896	$900	$1.00	43d	1	0.75mi
3024 Tyler Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	892	$725	$0.81	21d	1	0.79mi
3329 Texas St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	43d	1	0.80mi
4029 Chelsea Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	43d	1	0.80mi
3114 Cotton St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	888	$1,100	$1.24	43d	1	0.87mi
325 3rd St Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	925	$850	$0.92	43d	1	0.92mi
3042 George B Edmondson Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	900	$860	$0.96	43d	1	0.94mi
3070 Tremont St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1102	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.95mi
2107 Yarbrough Cir Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	910	$925	$1.02	43d	1	0.98mi
2111 Yarbrough St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	962	$795	$0.83	43d	1	1.02mi
1817 Texas Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	925	$1,050	$1.14	21d	1	1.08mi
2056 Midway St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1110	$985	$0.89	43d	1	1.30mi
2076 Midway St Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,000	$0.94	43d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-07-26
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-24
   historical Contingent
3. 2025-06-23
   listed $4,000 Active
4. 2020-01-27
   listed $9,999
5. 2016-12-05
   listed $2,500
6. 2007-09-07
   soldstatus $54,010
7. 2007-08-29
   soldstatus $53,900
8. 2007-05-15
   listed $59,900
9. 2006-12-15
   soldstatus $60,000
10. 2006-12-08
    soldstatus $27,000
11. 2006-11-08
    listed $30,000
12. 2001-10-02
    soldstatus $21,000
13. 2001-09-19
    listed $23,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $110 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $110 · $9/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$224
• − Property taxes: −$110
• − Insurance: −$20
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − Depreciation: −$116
• Taxable income: $9,823
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,358
• After-tax cash flow: $6,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 12,102
• Household income: $47,315
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 753.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 83% White 11% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.37%
• Current HPI: 66.3114
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-82.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-26 Pending — MAAR
• 2025-06-24 Contingent — MAAR
• 2025-06-23 Listed $4,000 MAAR
• 2020-01-27 Listed $9,999 MAAR
• 2016-12-05 Listed $2,500 MAAR
• 2007-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $54,010 Public Records
• 2007-08-29 Sold (MLS) $53,900 MAAR
• 2007-05-15 Listed $59,900 MAAR
• 2006-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-08 Sold (MLS) $27,000 MAAR
• 2006-11-08 Listed $30,000 MAAR
• 2001-10-02 Sold (MLS) $21,000 MAAR
• 2001-09-19 Listed $23,100 MAAR

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $110 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.