2820 Barnes St · Marianna, FL 32448

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 174 Days on market

Built 1984 10,253 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great for rental investment property. Has good history of rental income. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, A small add on has been put on the north side off of the living room that would be great for a den or man cave. It has central heat & air, city water and sewer. There is a metal storage building and another yard building that conveys. With some repairs and updates you will have a nice property on large corner lot.

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Vaulted ceilings
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• GAS RANGE
• REFRIGERATOR INCLUDED
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• METAL STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Home faces south; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal frame with metal siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot approximately 0.24 acres (about 100x)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room and dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 3.3% in Marianna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $70k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.53%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $39,900
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2820 Barnes St	0.00mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,140 (0%)	10mo	$39,900	$35	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $19,355
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $56,328
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32448

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $329/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $536

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-03
   listed $70,000 Active
2. 2025-09-04
   soldstatus $39,900 Closed 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   Great for rental investment property. Has good history of rental income. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, A small add on has been put on the north side off of the living room that would be great for a den or man cave. It has central heat & air, city water and sewer. There is a metal storage building and another yard building that conveys. With some repairs and updates you will have a nice property on large corner lot.

3. 2025-08-14
   status Pending 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   Great for rental investment property. Has good history of rental income. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, A small add on has been put on the north side off of the living room that would be great for a den or man cave. It has central heat & air, city water and sewer. There is a metal storage building and another yard building that conveys. With some repairs and updates you will have a nice property on large corner lot.

4. 2025-05-29
   listed $39,900 Active 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   Great for rental investment property. Has good history of rental income. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, A small add on has been put on the north side off of the living room that would be great for a den or man cave. It has central heat & air, city water and sewer. There is a metal storage building and another yard building that conveys. With some repairs and updates you will have a nice property on large corner lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $329 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $581 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$252/yr (+$21/mo · 76.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$329
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,101
• − Management: −$1,101
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,182
• After-tax cash flow: $4,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson
• NCES district ID: 1200960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,824
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3358
• State rank: #39 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marianna

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11318

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marianna, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,041

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,095 people
• By 2030: 44,432 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 41,077 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 37,587 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 28,921 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 19,332 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.7% · R 72.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.86%
• Current HPI: 140.1373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+75.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Listed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Sold (MLS) $39,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $39,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $329 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.