13404 Rayburn Rd · Hudson, FL 34667

$294,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1982 8,800 sqft lot Est $340k · 13% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Seller! Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering a functional layout and a unique side-entry garage design that enhances both curb appeal and interior flow. Recent updates include an architectural shingle roof installed in 2025, a 3.5-ton Goodman A/C system installed on April 21, 2022, and GE kitchen appliances (refrigerator, range, and microwave) installed in 2025. The property also features a sprinkler system supplied by a well for lawn irrigation. The kitchen features solid wood cabinetry and granite countertops, while the interior offers clean, well-kept living spaces and a comfortable layout. A dedicated laundry room includes built-in cabinetry and a fo

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinetry
• Screened lanai
• Sprinkler system

Tags

• SIDE-ENTRY GARAGE
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• SOLID WOOD CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• SCREENED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated; R4 zoning
• Financial info: Total monthly fees shown as $33.33; total annual fees shown as $400
• HOA & community: HOA required (Association: Jane Katzen); Monthly HOA approx. $33.33 (Quarterly association fee $100); Community clubhouse, playground, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, shuffleboard court, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage door opener; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water and well; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet/BB available; Electricity available and connected; Sprinkler meter and sprinkler well
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Accessible features including accessible bedroom, closets, entrance, hallway(s), kitchen, and washer/dryer
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a one-level home
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Sprinkler (metered); Mature landscaping; Concrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Solid surface and stone counters; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen open to family room; Living room and dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Stone counters; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom floorplan; Walk-in closets; Aluminum frame windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Inside laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($125/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Primary Academy (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 647 students, 90% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,313/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,317 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $340,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8108 Rumford Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,773 (-8%)	0mo	$275,000	$155	83
8103 Roxboro Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,749 (-10%)	1mo	$307,400	$176	78
8405 Reynolds Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,771 (-8%)	2mo	$289,000	$163	76
8302 Danbury Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,871 (-3%)	3mo	$325,000	$174	75
8035 Woodbrook Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,747 (-10%)	2mo	$300,000	$172	72
13155 Clock Tower Pkwy	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,832 (-5%)	3mo	$299,000	$163	72
8248 Millwood Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-11%)	1mo	$377,000	$220	69
13944 Talmage Loop	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,090 (+8%)	0mo	$406,000	$194	64
13111 Sumpter Cir	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,072 (+7%)	1mo	$349,900	$169	63
8301 Valley Stream Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,873 (-3%)	2mo	$350,000	$187	62
8523 Braxton Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-15%)	3mo	$325,000	$198	58
13615 Arden Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,040 (+6%)	2mo	$367,000	$180	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,002
• Equity at exit: $43,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-72,777
• Equity at exit: $25,498

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,313 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,375/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,300

Max offer price $294,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13121 Shadberry Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$1,889	$1.07	3d	1	0.35mi
13642 Dunwoody Ct Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,295	$1.33	17d	1	0.37mi
8724 Ashbury Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	2331	$2,900	$1.24	24d	1	0.43mi
8811 Seeley Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,895	$0.96	18d	1	0.72mi
13013 Sawmill Way Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,790	$1.18	5d	1	0.73mi
13220 Whaler Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$1,990	$1.27	24d	1	0.78mi
14144 Whitecap Ave Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,450	$1.54	20d	1	0.78mi
8826 Medalist Ct Hudson, FL	4.0	2.0	2055	$2,900	$1.41	18d	1	0.83mi
7216 Gulf Breeze Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,781	$1.17	5d	1	0.99mi
13847 Maria Dr Hudson beach34674, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$3,000	$2.07	24d	1	1.11mi
12215 Meadowbrook Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	24d	1	1.21mi
12213 Saddle Strap Row Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,990	$1.18	18d	1	1.30mi
14420 Pimberton Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,000	$1.15	24d	1	1.42mi
6891 Clark St Hudson, FL	3.0	3.0	1728	$2,500	$1.45	24d	1	1.43mi
14709 Shadowwood Blvd Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1568	$1,699	$1.08	5d	1	1.45mi
13806 San Juan Ave Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,500	$1.94	24d	1	1.48mi
7708 Maryland Ave Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,100	$1.47	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $294,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $294,900
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $329,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,072/yr (+$89/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$1,375
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,221
• − Management: −$2,221
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$5,027
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,206
• After-tax cash flow: $1,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,375 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.