1503 Sixteenth St · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$198,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1965 $109/sqft · 6% above area Est $187k · 6% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a find in a convenient location. Such a fun home and very well maintained. Gated courtyard entrance perfect for your morning coffee. This 3 bed 2 bath home offers a spacious den with fireplace, formal dining area and living room with sliding glass doors to backyard. An eat-in kitchen and well-appointed bedrooms. If you're looking for character and storage, this home has it all. Extra-large laundry/mud room with room for freezer, extra refrigerator and storage galore. Charming built-ins throughout. A detached garage and storage shed round out all this home has to offer.

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Formal dining area
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• GATED COURTYARD ENTRANCE
• SPACIOUS DEN
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• EXTRA-LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($913/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $163,825 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.65%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,608
• List price: $198,000
• Delta: 6.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2364 Apache Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (-13%)	18mo	$180,701	$114	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,504
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,498
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,168/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,542

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1502 Campbell Pl Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,450	$0.80	23d	1	0.23mi
2300 Aspen Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,400	$1.02	3d	1	0.52mi
1409 Juniper Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	2536	$1,550	$0.61	43d	1	0.64mi
2606 Pontiac Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,650	$0.92	23d	1	0.72mi
2201 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,000	$2.13	23d	1	0.78mi
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	43d	1	0.83mi
2637 Las Alturas Ct Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,600	$1.17	43d	1	0.97mi
3007 Del Sur Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1901	$1,800	$0.95	43d	1	1.08mi
2200 1st St Alamogordo, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1011	$1,979	$1.96	3d	18	1.46mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Active 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   What a find in a convenient location. Such a fun home and very well maintained. Gated courtyard entrance perfect for your morning coffee. This 3 bed 2 bath home offers a spacious den with fireplace, formal dining area and living room with sliding glass doors to backyard. An eat-in kitchen and well-appointed bedrooms. If you're looking for character and storage, this home has it all. Extra-large laundry/mud room with room for freezer, extra refrigerator and storage galore. Charming built-ins throughout. A detached garage and storage shed round out all this home has to offer.

2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   What a find in a convenient location. Such a fun home and very well maintained. Gated courtyard entrance perfect for your morning coffee. This 3 bed 2 bath home offers a spacious den with fireplace, formal dining area and living room with sliding glass doors to backyard. An eat-in kitchen and well-appointed bedrooms. If you're looking for character and storage, this home has it all. Extra-large laundry/mud room with room for freezer, extra refrigerator and storage galore. Charming built-ins throughout. A detached garage and storage shed round out all this home has to offer.

3. 2026-02-20
   listed $198,000 Active 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   What a find in a convenient location. Such a fun home and very well maintained. Gated courtyard entrance perfect for your morning coffee. This 3 bed 2 bath home offers a spacious den with fireplace, formal dining area and living room with sliding glass doors to backyard. An eat-in kitchen and well-appointed bedrooms. If you're looking for character and storage, this home has it all. Extra-large laundry/mud room with room for freezer, extra refrigerator and storage galore. Charming built-ins throughout. A detached garage and storage shed round out all this home has to offer.

4. 2026-02-20
   listed $198,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   What a find in a convenient location. Such a fun home and very well maintained. Gated courtyard entrance perfect for your morning coffee. This 3 bed 2 bath home offers a spacious den with fireplace, formal dining area and living room with sliding glass doors to backyard. An eat-in kitchen and well-appointed bedrooms. If you're looking for character and storage, this home has it all. Extra-large laundry/mud room with room for freezer, extra refrigerator and storage galore. Charming built-ins throughout. A detached garage and storage shed round out all this home has to offer.

5. 2026-01-26
   price $198,000
6. 2025-02-21
   listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,168 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$416/yr (+$35/mo · 35.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$1,168
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$2,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$599
• After-tax cash flow: $1,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — OCAOR
• 2026-05-04 Pending — OCAOR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $198,000 OCAOR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $198,000 OCAOR
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $198,000 OCAOR
• 2025-02-21 Listed $220,000 OCAOR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,168 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.