141 Larch Dr · Ruidoso, NM 88345

$199,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,091 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 276 Days on market

Built 2000 0.25 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHARMING ONE LEVEL HOME WITH WOOD-VALLEY VIEWS! Enjoy peaceful living in this well-maintained 2000 Redman nestled on approximately 0.25 acres. This three-bedroom, two-bath home features a desirable split-bedroom floor plan, a cozy freestanding wood stove, and central forced air gas heat. Additional highlights include a covered front deck, a newer roof (approx. 2019), a handy storage shed plus a side fenced yard--perfect for pets or outdoor activities. A great opportunity to own a move-in ready home with scenic surroundings! Ruidoso Forestry Certificate also.

Key facts

• Side fenced yard
• Covered front deck
• Handy storage shed

Tags

• FREESTANDING WOOD STOVE
• COVERED FRONT DECK
• HANDY STORAGE SHED
• SIDE FENCED YARD
• RUIDOSO FORESTRY CERTIFICATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#40 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Ruidoso Municipal Schools (town): math 16% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 29 in NM (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 593 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 92 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-14,217
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,772
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88345

• Active inventory: 593
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 4th St Ruidoso, NM	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,200	$2.04	44d	1	0.74mi
108 Apache Hills Dr Unit A heuristic Ruidoso, NM	2.0	1.0	726	$1,200	$1.65	25d	1	0.84mi
106 Apache Hills Dr Unit A Ruidoso, NM	2.0	1.0	726	$1,200	$1.65	44d	1	0.84mi
107 Niblic Ct Ruidoso, NM	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,200	$1.61	44d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,500 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,500 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,500 Active 269 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,500 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,500 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,500 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,500 Active 260 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,500 Active 259 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,500 Active 258 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,500 Active 257 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,500 Active 256 DOM
16. 2026-02-10
    price $199,500 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    CHARMING ONE LEVEL HOME WITH WOOD-VALLEY VIEWS! Enjoy peaceful living in this well-maintained 2000 Redman nestled on approximately 0.25 acres. This three-bedroom, two-bath home features a desirable split-bedroom floor plan, a cozy freestanding wood stove, and central forced air gas heat. Additional highlights include a covered front deck, a newer roof (approx. 2019), a handy storage shed plus a side fenced yard--perfect for pets or outdoor activities. A great opportunity to own a move-in ready home with scenic surroundings! Ruidoso Forestry Certificate also.

17. 2026-01-24
    price $210,000 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    CHARMING ONE LEVEL HOME WITH WOOD-VALLEY VIEWS! Enjoy peaceful living in this well-maintained 2000 Redman nestled on approximately 0.25 acres. This three-bedroom, two-bath home features a desirable split-bedroom floor plan, a cozy freestanding wood stove, and central forced air gas heat. Additional highlights include a covered front deck, a newer roof (approx. 2019), a handy storage shed plus a side fenced yard--perfect for pets or outdoor activities. A great opportunity to own a move-in ready home with scenic surroundings! Ruidoso Forestry Certificate also.

18. 2025-10-09
    price $228,000 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    CHARMING ONE LEVEL HOME WITH WOOD-VALLEY VIEWS! Enjoy peaceful living in this well-maintained 2000 Redman nestled on approximately 0.25 acres. This three-bedroom, two-bath home features a desirable split-bedroom floor plan, a cozy freestanding wood stove, and central forced air gas heat. Additional highlights include a covered front deck, a newer roof (approx. 2019), a handy storage shed plus a side fenced yard--perfect for pets or outdoor activities. A great opportunity to own a move-in ready home with scenic surroundings! Ruidoso Forestry Certificate also.

19. 2025-09-16
    listed $249,500 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    CHARMING ONE LEVEL HOME WITH WOOD-VALLEY VIEWS! Enjoy peaceful living in this well-maintained 2000 Redman nestled on approximately 0.25 acres. This three-bedroom, two-bath home features a desirable split-bedroom floor plan, a cozy freestanding wood stove, and central forced air gas heat. Additional highlights include a covered front deck, a newer roof (approx. 2019), a handy storage shed plus a side fenced yard--perfect for pets or outdoor activities. A great opportunity to own a move-in ready home with scenic surroundings! Ruidoso Forestry Certificate also.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,596 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$360/yr (+$30/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable income: $152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$36
• After-tax cash flow: $3,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ruidoso Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502310
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $44,094
• Composite: 31.68/100
• National rank: #5925
• State rank: #14 of 29 in NM

Livability — Ruidoso

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #11996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruidoso, NM
• County: Lincoln County · 7,835 people
• City population: 7,835
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• Population (ZIP): 7,835
• Household income: $53,971
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,903 people
• By 2030: 15,556 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 13,064 · -22.7%
• By 2050: 10,991 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 7,619 · -54.9%
• By 2100: 5,966 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 29.8% · R 68.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+36.4 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+32.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.17%
• Current HPI: 141.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $199,500 RLCAR
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $210,000 RLCAR
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $228,000 RLCAR
• 2025-09-16 Listed $249,500 RLCAR

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,236 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.