12519 Hollybrook Ln · Meadow Oaks, FL 34669

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 978 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1999 2,933 sqft lot Est $210k · 22% under $155/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Look no further! You will love this 2bd 2ba 1 car garage Villa in the quiet community of Shadow Run. Privacy gate as you enter your own mini courtyard! An open floor plan interior includes an eat-in kitchen, pantry, and washer/dryer area. A very spacious living/dining room with a skylight overlooking a screened-in back lanai. Hudson-Shadow Run offers a low HOA of $120.00 per month. Fees that include a community pool, maintenance-free grounds and trash!. Minutes to restaurants, beaches, and shopping. Located off SR52 with easy access to Suncoast Pkwy and Interstate 75. Book your showing today!

Key facts

• Two pets allowed
• No rear neighbors
• Screened lanai

Tags

• SCREENED LANAI
• PRIVATE SETTING
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• PET FRIENDLY
• TWO PETS ALLOWED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: Clubhouse, Pool, Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed: Cats and dogs
• Financial info: $1,860 total annual fees (as reported); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $155 monthly fee; HOA fee includes grounds maintenance, pool, and trash; Association amenities: Clubhouse, Pool; Association approval required; Condo land included

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) — approximately 12 x 23
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Attached villa; One story; Faces north; Listed condition: Fixer
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a villa (residential)
• Exterior features: Covered enclosed rear porch; Porch; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings; Skylights; Window shades
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in kitchen

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $165,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$210,270) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (38.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.6% in Meadow Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#794 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 15 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,191 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,270
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12627 W Cherrydale Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	924 (-6%)	8mo	$192,000	$208	78
12529 Knollbrook Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+6%)	9mo	$205,000	$199	77
12800 Kellywood Cir	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,002 (+2%)	6mo	$215,000	$215	67
12836 Kellywood Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	976 (-0%)	3mo	$215,000	$220	63
12802 Kellywood Cir	0.52mi	2/2.0	960 (-2%)	15mo	$230,000	$240	60
12830 Lake Tree Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+14%)	1mo	$145,000	$129	56
11972 Lakewood Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,072 (+10%)	4mo	$190,000	$177	55
12903 Post Rd	0.69mi	2/1.0	960 (-2%)	12mo	$260,000	$271	50
12233 Bartkus Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,106 (+13%)	15mo	$216,000	$195	49
12817 Kellywood Cir	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,108 (+13%)	10mo	$235,000	$212	42
12928 Kellywood Cir	0.58mi	2/1.0	882 (-10%)	19mo	$195,000	$221	37
12906 Kellywood Cir	0.63mi	2/1.0	866 (-12%)	18mo	$193,000	$223	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-49,369
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-71,097
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,284/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,159

Max offer price $101,191

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-268	-5% $-315	+0% $-361	+5% $-408	+10% $-455
Rent	-10% $-496	-5% $-428	+0% $-361	+5% $-294	+10% $-227
Rate	-1.0pp $-278	-0.5pp $-319	base $-361	+0.5pp $-404	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	4d	1	0.73mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	25d	1	0.97mi
11105 Pinto Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,350	$2.01	13d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Likely covers: trashlandscapingpool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,284 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,284 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,284
• − Insurance: −$5,944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,634
• − Management: −$1,634
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$6,972
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,673
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Meadow Oaks

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #794
• US rank: #18203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Oaks, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-19.1% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-01 Price Changed $194,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Listed $204,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $184,900 Public Records
• 2022-08-01 Sold (MLS) $184,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-08-01 Sold (MLS) $184,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-01 Sold (MLS) $184,900 HCAR
• 2022-07-01 Pending — HCAR
• 2022-06-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-28 Listed $189,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-06-28 Listed $189,000 HCAR
• 2022-06-27 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-11 Sold (MLS) $160,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-01-11 Sold (MLS) $160,000 HCAR
• 2021-11-23 Pending — HCAR
• 2021-11-18 Listed $159,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2021-11-18 Listed $159,900 HCAR
• 2017-07-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-29 Price Changed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-04 Price Changed $87,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-16 Price Changed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-03 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2017-05-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-01 Listed $86,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-30 Listed $86,000 HCAR
• 2015-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records
• 2015-07-06 Sold (MLS) $53,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-06 Listed $56,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-19 Listed $56,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-06 Listed $51,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-07-03 Listed $51,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 1997-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $204,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,284 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.