5840 Pony Express Trl #3 · Pollock Pines, CA 95726

$43,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 5 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $47k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice single-wide mobile home located in a 55+ community in Pollock Pines offers comfortable, low-maintenance living. Featuring newer flooring throughout along with fresh interior and exterior paint, the home feels bright, clean, and move-in ready. The functional layout includes cozy living spaces, an enclosed sunroom ideal for relaxing year-round, and convenient ample storage for added organization. Enjoy peaceful mountain living with easy access to local amenities in this welcoming senior community.

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Enclosed sunroom
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• NEWER FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• AMPLE STORAGE
• PEACEFUL MOUNTAIN LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease indicated ($720) and also listed as 'No' for land lease Y/N

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (single wide); Built in 1970; Park home make
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Other roof type
• Exterior features: Aluminum skirting; No notable lot features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Gas cooktop; Range hood; Synthetic countertops; Dining space in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wood stove; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Living room with additional features
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside (in kitchen/inside area); 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Cap rate 43.8% vs local median 3.8% in Pollock Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#864 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pollock Pines Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewood Elementary (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #557 of 1,571 statewide, top 38%, 327 students, 48% FRL); Sierra Ridge Middle (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #231 of 498 statewide, top 47%, 263 students, 50% FRL); El Dorado High (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D-, #425 of 1,170 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $301 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.89%
• DSCR: 6.96
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,800
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5840 Pony Express Trl #7	0.03mi	1/1.0 (-1)	725 (+1%)	9mo	$46,950	$65	85
5840 Pony Express Trl #24	0.01mi	2/1.0	768 (+7%)	6mo	$20,000	$26	83
5840 Pony Express Trl #19	0.05mi	2/1.0	728 (+1%)	18mo	$63,000	$87	80
6008 Pony Express Trl #12	0.41mi	2/1.0	707 (-2%)	11mo	$68,000	$96	68
5766 Pony Express Trl #19	0.19mi	2/1.0	750 (+4%)	22mo	$62,000	$83	66
5881 Pony Express Trl #27	0.15mi	2/1.0	820 (+14%)	6mo	$30,000	$37	65
5695 Pony Express Trl #16	0.30mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (-7%)	6mo	$44,000	$65	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $79,538
• Equity at exit: $6,486

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.85×
• Total profit: $180,843
• Equity at exit: $3,761

Cash invested: $12,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95726

• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$228
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $1,359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $381

Max offer price $43,500

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,389	-5% $1,374	+0% $1,359	+5% $1,344	+10% $1,329
Rent	-10% $1,193	-5% $1,276	+0% $1,359	+5% $1,442	+10% $1,525
Rate	-1.0pp $1,381	-0.5pp $1,370	base $1,359	+0.5pp $1,348	+1.0pp $1,336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,875
• Closing costs: $1,305
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6001 Pony Express Trl Pollock Pines, CA	1.0	1.0	730	$2,300	$3.15	0d	1	0.39mi
6396 Pony Express Trl Pollock Pines, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,425	$2.04	0d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $43,500 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $43,500 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $43,500 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $43,500 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,500 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,500 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $43,500 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $43,500 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $43,500 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $43,500 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $43,500 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $43,500 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $43,500 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,437
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$1,265
• Taxable income: $16,604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,985
• After-tax cash flow: $12,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pollock Pines Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0631290
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,474
• Composite: 30.11/100
• National rank: #6334
• State rank: #277 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pollock Pines

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #23561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pollock Pines, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,229

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.87%
• Current HPI: 253.8307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B