1250 Davella Dr · Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37207

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · Manufactured · 106 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $243k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Holiday Village in Nashville, Tennessee is a peaceful, yet vibrant community, ideal for people dreaming of owning a home in a thriving area of Tennessee. Our 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom homes feature spacious open-concept floor plans, Energy-Star Certified appliances, and wood kitchen cabinets. Holiday Village, owned and operated by UMH Properties, is a gated community offering a wide variety of amenities, including bus shelters, and playgrounds. Additionally, this Nashville community offers exciting events such as resident appreciation nights, raffles, and seed and fertilizer handouts to jumpstart your landscaping. With our new expansion underway, we invite you to come choose your lot and custom

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 106 days

Tags

• WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,178 (listed)
• Financial info: List price $145,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Central air conditioning available
• Home design: Single-family style (spec home); Plan: Fleetwood U86 Holiday Village
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 535 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.88%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,668
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
616 Merrylodge Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+9%)	2mo	$265,500	$206	54
329 Queen Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,218 (+3%)	8mo	$200,000	$164	50
205 Greenbranch Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-2%)	21mo	$267,000	$232	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $11,704
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $46,591
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37207

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 535
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
438 Roger Williams Ave Nashville, TN	2.0	1.5	960	$1,450	$1.51	21d	1	0.22mi
109 Duke St Unit E Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,200	$1.57	23d	1	0.54mi
109 Duke St Unit B Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	23d	1	0.54mi
204 Prince Ave Unit A Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	23d	1	0.61mi
215 Prince Ave Unit D Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	780	$999	$1.28	23d	1	0.62mi
128 Gordon Ter Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	10d	1	0.64mi
308 Prince Ave Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	16d	1	0.77mi
308 Prince Ave Unit A Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	21d	1	0.77mi
5515 Scruggs Ln Nashville, TN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1128	$1,799	$1.59	2d	42	0.78mi
1801 Meridian St Nashville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1050	$2,817	$2.68	4d	10	0.81mi
2316 Woodridge Dr Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0	950	$1,595	$1.68	23d	1	0.84mi
2003 Overby Rd Nashville, TN	2.0	2.0	924	$2,295	$2.48	7d	1	0.89mi
1100 Sunset Cir Nashville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1070	$1,899	$1.77	2d	7	0.95mi
2945 Brick Church Pike Nashville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,652	$1.57	23d	1	1.02mi
55 Lucile St Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0–2.0	731	$2,125	$2.91	1d	23	1.13mi
214 Lucile Ln Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1326	$2,595	$1.96	12d	1	1.14mi
112 Lucile St Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,795	$1.50	23d	1	1.17mi
538 Norton Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,000	$1.43	19d	1	1.18mi
613 Youngs Ln Nashville, TN	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,350	$1.28	7d	1	1.21mi
334 Ewing Dr Nashville, TN	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1185	$2,306	$1.95	1d	1	1.21mi
3120 Creekwood Dr Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	910	$1,300	$1.43	21d	1	1.23mi
64 Fern Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.5	1468	$3,149	$2.15	1d	1	1.24mi
600 E Trinity Ln Unit 1049679P Nashville, TN	2.0	2.0	990	$3,890	$3.93	23d	1	1.24mi
3100 Conviser Dr Nashville, TN	2.0	1.5	960	$1,600	$1.67	17d	1	1.25mi
1301 Baptist World Center Dr Unit 1385496P Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1097	$2,693	$2.45	7d	1	1.28mi
2323 Ilolo St Unit 1 Nashville, TN	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,995	$1.79	23d	1	1.29mi
3104 Brickdale Ln Unit B Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	916	$1,400	$1.53	21d	1	1.30mi
2327 Whites Creek Pike Nashville, TN	2.0	2.0	1391	$1,950	$1.40	7d	1	1.31mi
1111 Baptist World Center Dr #4 Nashville, TN	2.0	3.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	21d	1	1.34mi
120 Oak Valley Dr Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	1170	$1,299	$1.11	3d	9	1.38mi
2413 Whites Creek Pike Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,550	$2.07	23d	1	1.42mi
849 Cherokee Ave #12 Nashville, TN	2.0	2.5	1330	$2,600	$1.95	23d	1	1.42mi
410 Ewing Dr Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	780	$1,300	$1.67	17d	1	1.45mi
1205 Meridian St Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,100	$1.82	7d	1	1.45mi
1310 Jones Ave Nashville, TN	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,895	$1.58	17d	1	1.46mi
927 Chickasaw Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	2.0	1223	$2,600	$2.13	17d	1	1.48mi
901 Cherokee Ave Nashville, TN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1457	$3,563	$2.45	1d	12	1.49mi
1402 Montgomery Ave Unit B Nashville, TN	2.0	1.0	885	$2,250	$2.54	7d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 88 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,953
• − Management: −$1,953
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $5,265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,264
• After-tax cash flow: $5,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County
• NCES district ID: 4703180
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,667
• Composite: 14.03/100
• National rank: #9472
• State rank: #126 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN
• County: Davidson County · 680,067 people
• City population: 677,595
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 41,366
• Household income: $61,744
• Rent vs Own: 44.3% rent · 55.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1969.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 808,568 people
• By 2030: 874,489 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 1,009,046 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 1,147,294 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 1,475,439 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 1,714,101 · +112.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 62.7% · R 35.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: 21.0pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+26.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.21%
• Current HPI: 351.9628
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B