915 Nautical Dr · Vermilion, OH 44089

$525,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,311 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1969 4,229 sqft lot $227/sqft · 90% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Imagine living the dream every day with your boat and water toys in your back yard while boating and fishing on Lake Erie. This fantastic 3- bedroom 2311 sq ft. home is located in a fantastic area of waterfront homes with 195 Ft of break wall to dock boats. The home was built on a double lot that allows for a very big yard. The very large 3 car garage 21x31nand10x21 also has plenty of room for more cars, workshop, or toy storage. There is a covered deck on the back of the house. This area is the ultimate place to entertain or relax after a long day and enjoy the views. The updated kitchen has wood cabinets, all appliances and seating area. The family room, informal eating area, formal dinin

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Open floor plan
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• COVERED DECK
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DIRECT ACCESS TO PATIO
• DIRECT ACCESS TO DOCK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home; Above-grade finished area reported at 2,311; Vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Asphalt roof; Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Boat slip; Dock; Covered patio/porch; Waterfront property; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 92

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first level
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on second level
• Flooring: Carpet in several rooms; Laminate in dining room; Ceramic tile in one bathroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Two main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Total of 8 rooms; Home has a view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $989 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $525k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.0% in Vermilion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 128 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,044/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $525,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.56%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,747
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: 89.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
915 Nautical Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,311 (0%)	0mo	$480,000	$208	98
1140 W River Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,300 (-0%)	9mo	$240,000	$104	72
969 Vermilion Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	2,345 (+2%)	9mo	$135,000	$58	71
4829 Woodview Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,304 (-0%)	2mo	$314,900	$137	65
880 Exchange St	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,230 (-4%)	6mo	$315,000	$141	60
5105 Park Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,128 (-8%)	8mo	$889,000	$418	52
5408 Park Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,321 (+0%)	9mo	$899,000	$387	50
4560 Newbury Dr	0.71mi	3/3.0	2,124 (-8%)	1mo	$341,000	$161	49
1062 Flint Dr	0.62mi	3/3.0	2,100 (-9%)	9mo	$497,000	$237	44
1058 Wayne Trl	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,098 (-9%)	12mo	$415,000	$198	42
5267 Portage Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,614 (+13%)	0mo	$900,000	$344	38
4973 Woodview Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,965 (-15%)	6mo	$325,000	$165	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-21,896
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $62,805
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44089

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,652/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,269
• Net cashflow: $989

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,793

Max offer price $525,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5012 Hollyview Dr Unit 1496126P Vermilion, OH	4.0	1.5	1679	$8,362	$4.98	43d	1	0.81mi
1041 Dogwood Ln Vermilion, OH	2.0	2.0	1457	$2,274	$1.56	1d	12	1.15mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $525,000 Active 1110-char remark
2. 2026-01-23
   price $525,000
3. 2025-12-13
   listed $550,000 Active
4. 2007-04-23
   soldstatus $269,000
5. 2006-07-06
   historical
6. 2006-01-06
   listed $274,900
7. 2006-01-05
   historical
8. 2005-07-05
   listed $274,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,652 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,421 · $535/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,769/yr (+$147/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$4,652
• − Insurance: −$7,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,803
• − Management: −$5,803
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable income: $3,851
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$924
• After-tax cash flow: $10,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vermilion Local
• NCES district ID: 3904682
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,091
• Composite: 49.61/100
• National rank: #1981
• State rank: #316 of 656 in OH

Livability — Vermilion

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1481

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vermilion, OH
• County: Erie · 78,232 people
• Metro: Sandusky, OH
• Population (ZIP): 15,873
• Household income: $72,045
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.8

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,204 people
• By 2030: 71,341 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 66,771 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 62,512 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 56,154 · -23.3%
• By 2100: 49,045 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: R (+14.1) · D 42.5% · R 56.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.0pp toward R · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: -14.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.1 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+9.8 2012: D+11.3 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.76%
• Current HPI: 206.8223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-99.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $1,440 Public Records
• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) $480,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-21 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-14 Listed $525,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $525,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-12-13 Listed $550,000 MLSNOW
• 2007-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $269,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-06 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2006-01-06 Listed $274,900 MLSNOW
• 2006-01-05 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2005-07-05 Listed $274,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,652 · -11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.