1280 N Ironwood Dr #84 · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$76,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 109 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $82k · 6% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Quiet 55+ community with a great view of the Superstition mountains! This partially furnished 3 bed/2 bath hom, has a welcoming and open kitchen and living room area. The large back deck has roll down sunshades which create a private outdoor entertaining area. Standard amenities include, clubhouse, pool and spa. One of the lower lot rents in the area at approx. $635. This seller is motivated, so come take a look and make an offer on your new home!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Spa
• Pool

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax year 2023
• HOA & community: Land lease community; Monthly land lease payment of $595; Association fees include sewer and street maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Private sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Mountain view
• Construction: Steel frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Private spa; East/West exposure; Corner lot; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road; Pool in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in primary bedroom; Mechanical sun shades; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,979 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.94%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1280 N Ironwood Dr #6	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	4mo	$45,600	$40	82
488 N Saguaro Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,201 (+0%)	2mo	$260,000	$216	70
2292 N Ironwood Dr #08	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	5mo	$79,000	$66	69
2292 N Ironwood Dr #128	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+3%)	3mo	$84,000	$68	66
2292 N Ironwood Dr #127	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+3%)	3mo	$70,300	$57	63
1975 W Smoketree St	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,121 (-7%)	6mo	$315,000	$281	62
2292 N Ironwood Dr #41	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-10%)	3mo	$16,000	$15	50
875 W Smoketree St	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-10%)	7mo	$337,000	$312	48
2292 N Ironwood Dr #34	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-15%)	5mo	$60,000	$59	46
2292 N Ironwood Dr #84	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (-15%)	3mo	$25,000	$24	41
2685 W Foothill St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+15%)	0mo	$305,000	$221	40
2655 W Mockingbird St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,041 (-13%)	7mo	$190,000	$183	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $45,804
• Equity at exit: $11,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $100,316
• Equity at exit: $6,649

Cash invested: $21,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$403
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $1,004

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $76,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,225
• Closing costs: $2,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1877 W Overland St Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,999	$1.41	16d	1	0.25mi
2292 N Ironwood Dr Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,475	$1.28	24d	1	0.55mi
2185 W Ohio St Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	4d	1	0.64mi
455 N Delaware Dr Unit 7 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	24d	1	0.73mi
1440 N Idaho Rd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1010	$1,900	$1.88	24d	3	1.02mi
455 S Delaware Dr Unit 179 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,395	$2.26	24d	1	1.28mi
455 S Delaware Dr Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,048	$1.93	20d	2	1.28mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,900 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,900 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,900 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,900 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $76,900 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $76,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,900 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,900 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-03-01
    listed $82,900 Active
15. 2025-09-09
    historical
16. 2025-06-15
    listed $89,000 Active
17. 2025-05-01
    historical
18. 2025-03-17
    status Active
19. 2025-03-16
    historical
20. 2025-02-19
    price $91,500
21. 2024-09-17
    status Active
22. 2024-09-15
    historical
23. 2024-09-04
    price $99,900
24. 2024-07-08
    price $110,000
25. 2024-03-15
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,308
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$2,237
• Taxable income: $11,506
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,761
• After-tax cash flow: $9,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-30.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listed $82,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-15 Listed $89,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-03-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $91,500 ARMLS
• 2024-09-17 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-09-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2024-07-08 Price Changed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $120,000 ARMLS