2781 Colony Ct · Estelle, LA 70072

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 742 Days on market

Built 1975 $135/sqft · 13% below area Est $218k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location off Ames Blvd. Cul de Sac at end of Street - Very Open with lots of Storage. Motivated Seller bring offers.

Key facts

• Lots of storage
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1975

Tags

• LOTS OF STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.7% in Estelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Jefferson Parish (suburban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #44 of 98 in LA (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 298 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 518 units permitted in Jefferson Parish in 2024 (43 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 742 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 742 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.64%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,042
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -13.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5109 Mount Rushmore Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-1%)	2mo	$189,000	$137	89
2824 Virginia Lee Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-3%)	3mo	$215,000	$159	86
2708 Pritchard Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,466 (+5%)	2mo	$266,000	$181	77
5220 Mt Shasta Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,398 (-0%)	2mo	$86,000	$62	74
3008 Mount Kennedy Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-4%)	2mo	$188,900	$140	71
3021 Mount Kennedy Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+4%)	1mo	$145,000	$100	67
5937 S Oak Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (+4%)	0mo	$171,500	$118	65
5153 Mount Shasta Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-13%)	1mo	$165,000	$135	62
3520 Bastian Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-7%)	2mo	$115,000	$88	60
4150 E Ames Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-15%)	3mo	$71,500	$60	50
2420 Taffy Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,211 (-14%)	2mo	$196,000	$162	49
2625 Misty Meadows Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+9%)	2mo	$215,000	$141	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,209
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-23,964
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70072

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 298
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,576

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $192	+0% $138	+5% $85	+10% $31
Rent	-10% $0	-5% $69	+0% $138	+5% $207	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $186	base $138	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Sunrise Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	1.5	1225	$1,750	$1.43	44d	1	0.36mi
5160 Mount Matterhorn St Marrero, LA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	24d	1	0.39mi
5162 Mount Matterhorn Ave Marrero, LA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	5d	1	0.39mi
5913 S Oak Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	24d	1	0.55mi
2425 Ramsey Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	3d	1	0.61mi
5300 Alpaca Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,995	$1.21	15d	1	0.78mi
2417 Highland Meadows Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	44d	1	0.83mi
2544 Jeanne St Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1158	$2,300	$1.99	24d	1	0.97mi
2325 Wilton St Unit A Marrero, LA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	1.09mi
2632 Dove Ave Unit NA Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,650	$1.32	44d	1	1.10mi
5118 Ehret Rd Unit B Marrero, LA	3.0	2.5	1275	$1,800	$1.41	5d	1	1.14mi
2612 Susie Ct Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,200	$1.19	20d	1	1.16mi
2748 Erin Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,850	$1.27	24d	1	1.21mi
5504 Randolph St Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,800	$1.00	24d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 742 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 739 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 738 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 737 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 736 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 734 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 731 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 730 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 729 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 728 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 724 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 723 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 722 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 721 DOM
15. 2024-05-30
    listed $189,000 Active 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Great location off Ames Blvd. Cul de Sac at end of Street - Very Open with lots of Storage. Motivated Seller bring offers.

16. 2024-05-30
    listed $189,000 Active 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Great location off Ames Blvd. Cul de Sac at end of Street - Very Open with lots of Storage. Motivated Seller bring offers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$1,742
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$1,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$356
• After-tax cash flow: $2,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200840
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $48,421
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #44 of 98 in LA

Livability — Estelle

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estelle, LA
• County: Jefferson Parish · 426,999 people
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 55,693
• Household income: $54,885
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1807.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 451,696 people
• By 2030: 455,451 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 458,308 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 461,031 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 476,351 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 499,377 · +10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+12.9) · D 42.5% · R 55.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.6pp toward D · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.87%
• Current HPI: 161.7477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-30 Listed $189,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listed $189,000 GSREIN

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,303 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.