122 Diablo Loop · Elgin, TX 78621

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily · 781 Days on market

Built 2024 $231/sqft · at area comps Est $305k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The birch tree represents new beginnings and what better place to start anew than with a floor plan bearing the same name? Invite new neighbors over for a housewarming party featuring stuffed mushrooms. The secret ingredient is the gourmet kitchen you used to make them in. There's plenty of room to entertain in the airy great room, but with the patio door open, guests can enjoy fresh air. When conversation turns to work, take them to see the bedroom you converted into a home office. The spacious closet is perfect for storing supplies. After the party, snuggle with your spouse in the lovely primary suite. You made some great new friends today.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Airy great room
• Spacious closet

Tags

• FLOOR PLAN NAMED BIRCH
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• AIRY GREAT ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• SPACIOUS CLOSET
• LOVELY PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 781 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,176 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 781 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.79%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,894
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -1.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Two Bits Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+7%)	2mo	$259,990	$187	77
158 Two Bits Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+7%)	3mo	$259,490	$187	77
142 Two Bits Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+7%)	3mo	$260,990	$188	77
148 Two Bits Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+7%)	4mo	$258,990	$187	76
137 Two Bits Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+7%)	3mo	$267,990	$193	76
153 Two Bits Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+7%)	4mo	$261,990	$189	75
330 Bendecido Loop	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,482 (+14%)	4mo	$299,265	$202	61
140 Tolo Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+15%)	0mo	$253,990	$171	56
445 Lucky Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+15%)	2mo	$276,990	$186	56
150 Tolo Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+15%)	1mo	$284,990	$192	55
153 Tolo Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,482 (+14%)	2mo	$299,990	$202	54
131 Tolo Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,482 (+14%)	3mo	$284,990	$192	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $133,333
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $417,011
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $231,116

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	17d	1	0.04mi
110 S Main St #104 Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	43d	1	1.03mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	4d	1	1.07mi
204 Hall St Unit A Elgin, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$1,195	$1.31	1d	1	1.14mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	43d	1	1.23mi
200 Maple Ln Elgin, TX	2.0	2.0	891	$1,400	$1.57	43d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 781 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 780 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 779 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 778 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 776 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 772 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 771 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 770 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 767 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 766 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 765 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 764 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 763 DOM
14. 2024-05-14
    price $299,900 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    The birch tree represents new beginnings and what better place to start anew than with a floor plan bearing the same name? Invite new neighbors over for a housewarming party featuring stuffed mushrooms. The secret ingredient is the gourmet kitchen you used to make them in. There's plenty of room to entertain in the airy great room, but with the patio door open, guests can enjoy fresh air. When conversation turns to work, take them to see the bedroom you converted into a home office. The spacious closet is perfect for storing supplies. After the party, snuggle with your spouse in the lovely primary suite. You made some great new friends today.

15. 2024-04-30
    historical 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    The birch tree represents new beginnings and what better place to start anew than with a floor plan bearing the same name? Invite new neighbors over for a housewarming party featuring stuffed mushrooms. The secret ingredient is the gourmet kitchen you used to make them in. There's plenty of room to entertain in the airy great room, but with the patio door open, guests can enjoy fresh air. When conversation turns to work, take them to see the bedroom you converted into a home office. The spacious closet is perfect for storing supplies. After the party, snuggle with your spouse in the lovely primary suite. You made some great new friends today.

16. 2024-04-29
    listed $301,900 Active 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    The birch tree represents new beginnings and what better place to start anew than with a floor plan bearing the same name? Invite new neighbors over for a housewarming party featuring stuffed mushrooms. The secret ingredient is the gourmet kitchen you used to make them in. There's plenty of room to entertain in the airy great room, but with the patio door open, guests can enjoy fresh air. When conversation turns to work, take them to see the bedroom you converted into a home office. The spacious closet is perfect for storing supplies. After the party, snuggle with your spouse in the lovely primary suite. You made some great new friends today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$11,142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2024-04-30 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-04-29 Listed $301,900 Zillow