19022 Sloan Ave SW · Shaft, MD 21532

$49,200

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1940 7,527 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Auction. The seller does not represent or guarantee occupancy status. NO viewings of this property. Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. Drive by only. Cape Cod style home with attached 1 car garage. 3 bedrooms, 1.1 bathrooms. AS IS, cash only sales with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing. Property sold without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein.

Key facts

• 7,527 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

🔨 Auction listing. The $49,200 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $185,561 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-134/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#156 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $52k (51%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,772 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,561
• List price: $49,200
• Delta: -73.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-30,841
• Equity at exit: $27,668

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-28,015
• Equity at exit: $16,044

Cash invested: $51,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21532

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$973
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $183,587

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,390
• Closing costs: $5,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,200 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,200 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,200 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,200 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,200 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,200 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,200 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,200 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,200 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $49,200 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $52,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $57,400 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Auction. The seller does not represent or guarantee occupancy status. NO viewings of this property. Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. Drive by only. Cape Cod style home with attached 1 car garage. 3 bedrooms, 1.1 bathrooms. AS IS, cash only sales with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing. Property sold without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein.

16. 2026-04-20
    price $65,100 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Auction. The seller does not represent or guarantee occupancy status. NO viewings of this property. Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. Drive by only. Cape Cod style home with attached 1 car garage. 3 bedrooms, 1.1 bathrooms. AS IS, cash only sales with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing. Property sold without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein.

17. 2026-04-03
    price $68,900 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Auction. The seller does not represent or guarantee occupancy status. NO viewings of this property. Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. Drive by only. Cape Cod style home with attached 1 car garage. 3 bedrooms, 1.1 bathrooms. AS IS, cash only sales with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing. Property sold without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein.

18. 2026-03-19
    price $79,500 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Auction. The seller does not represent or guarantee occupancy status. NO viewings of this property. Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. Drive by only. Cape Cod style home with attached 1 car garage. 3 bedrooms, 1.1 bathrooms. AS IS, cash only sales with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing. Property sold without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein.

19. 2026-03-04
    listed $100,700 Active 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Auction. The seller does not represent or guarantee occupancy status. NO viewings of this property. Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. Drive by only. Cape Cod style home with attached 1 car garage. 3 bedrooms, 1.1 bathrooms. AS IS, cash only sales with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing. Property sold without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein.

20. 2006-11-15
    soldstatus $84,800
21. 1997-09-18
    soldstatus $50,000
22. 1997-09-05
    soldstatus $47,000
23. 1997-07-12
    historical
24. 1997-04-13
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,394
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$928
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,383
• − Management: −$1,383
• − Depreciation: −$5,398
• Taxable loss: −$3,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$812
• After-tax cash flow: $678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Shaft

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #7042

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shaft, MD
• Population (ZIP): 13,123

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 6% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.31%
• Current HPI: 244.5937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+15.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $57,400 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $65,100 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $68,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $79,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $100,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $84,800 Public Records
• 1997-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1997-09-05 Sold (MLS) $47,000 MRIS
• 1997-07-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-04-13 Listed $49,900 MRIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.