20910 Wildbird Cherry Ln · Porter Heights, TX 77365

$263,430

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Land · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 $167/sqft · 26% above area Est $210k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you'll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Private bath
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 955 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,221 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.02%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,538
• List price: $263,430
• Delta: 25.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-30,140
• Equity at exit: $39,278

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-18,766
• Equity at exit: $22,777

Cash invested: $73,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 955
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,381
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $963/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,989

Max offer price $263,430

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $322	+0% $247	+5% $173	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $156	+0% $247	+5% $338	+10% $429
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $314	base $247	+0.5pp $179	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,858
• Closing costs: $7,903
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16658 Moss Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	26d	1	0.19mi
21019 Voyage Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	1678	$1,795	$1.07	45d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $263,430 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $263,430 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $263,430 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $263,430 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $263,430 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,821 · $402/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,858/yr (+$322/mo · 400.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,756
• − Property taxes: −$963
• − Insurance: −$1,317
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − Depreciation: −$7,663
• Taxable loss: −$1,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$358
• After-tax cash flow: $3,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Porter Heights, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B