135 Bush Dr · Venus, TX 76084

$299,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,115 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2021 5,489 sqft lot Est $347k · 14% under $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Accepting CASH Offers Only for Quick Close - Recent construction built 2021, 2-story, 4bdrm, 2.5 baths with open floor plan, with new grey LVP flooring (luxury vinyl plank) and new grey carpet. Master bedrm large enough for sitting area to watch the morning sun rise with your favorite tea or coffee. Relax in your master bathroom garden tub and the walk-in-closet is large enough to be used as a dressing room. When it's time to entertain there's a choice of living rm, breakfast rm or breakfast counter - just take your choice of open spaces. Kitchen with granite counters, large walk-in pantry and the stainless steel REFRIGERATOR STAYS. Upstairs has 3 amazing large bedrms each with walk-in closets. Able to have an office, playroom, study or guest room - this home is very versatile. When you're ready, just walkout to your large backyd with full open view. WASHER and DRYER BOTH STAY, REFRIGERATOR STAYS and Builder's warranty transfers to new owner.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GARDEN TUB
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Second mortgage reported
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA managed by First Service Residential; HOA fee $185 semi-annually; HOA fees cover full use of facilities, insurance, and maintenance of grounds

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; On-street parking available
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Sewer available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story; Residential property; Smart home features
• Construction: Built in 2021; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Lot less than 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Patriot Estates Ph 7b

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Additional bedrooms on second level with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms (2 full, 1 half); Primary bathroom with dual sinks, separate shower, garden tub and linen closet; Ensuite bath for primary
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Granite counters; Pantry; Cable TV available
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer excluded from sale

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-538 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,986 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.68%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,860
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Julian Davis Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,189 (+4%)	2mo	$359,900	$164	87
203 Julian Davis Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,189 (+4%)	3mo	$321,900	$147	87
206 Julian Davis Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,189 (+4%)	3mo	$307,900	$141	86
106 Rushmore Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,135 (+1%)	4mo	$293,000	$137	77
518 Bennie Leonard St	0.34mi	4/2.5	1,985 (-6%)	4mo	$294,900	$149	69
124 Patrick Henry Dr	0.43mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,054 (-3%)	2mo	$339,590	$165	69
219 Patton Ln	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,189 (+4%)	1mo	$359,900	$164	63
305 Patton Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,189 (+4%)	0mo	$359,900	$164	62
153 Jefferson Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,228 (+5%)	0mo	$289,500	$130	62
114 Patrick Henry Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,977 (-6%)	3mo	$339,990	$172	60
213 Patton Ln	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,369 (+12%)	2mo	$374,990	$158	49
127 John Laurens Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,809 (-14%)	3mo	$324,990	$180	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $75,230
• Equity at exit: $214,199

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $241,384
• Equity at exit: $412,732

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$708 /mo · $8,493/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,085

Max offer price $204,986

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-368	-5% $-453	+0% $-538	+5% $-623	+10% $-708
Rent	-10% $-728	-5% $-633	+0% $-538	+5% $-443	+10% $-348
Rate	-1.0pp $-387	-0.5pp $-461	base $-538	+0.5pp $-616	+1.0pp $-695

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	20d	1	0.07mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	12d	1	0.09mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	44d	1	0.10mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	2d	1	0.26mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	2d	1	0.28mi
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	25d	1	0.33mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	2d	1	0.35mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	2d	1	0.37mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	13d	1	0.38mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	2d	1	0.38mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,535	$1.28	2d	1	0.39mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.39mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	22d	1	0.39mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	2d	1	0.40mi
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	22d	1	0.41mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	44d	1	0.43mi
720 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	8d	1	0.45mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	44d	1	0.45mi
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	2d	1	0.46mi
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	2d	1	0.55mi
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	8d	1	0.66mi
113 Franklin Ct Venus, TX	5.0	2.0	2959	$2,370	$0.80	2d	1	0.66mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	3d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $299,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,493 · $708/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,493 · $708/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$8,493
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$11,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,799
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+27.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $299,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-22 Listed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2022-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-05-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-05-19 Price Changed $340,000 NTREIS
• 2022-05-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-04-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-04-04 Listed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2021-01-06 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-08-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-08-14 Listed $235,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,493 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.