6434 Provident Green Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$226,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2006 2,975 sqft lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $227k · at est. $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 6434 Provident Green Dr, a home that exudes modern elegance. The kitchen is a chef's dream, boasting stainless steel appliances that are brand new and ready for use. The primary bedroom is a sanctuary, complete with a spacious walk-in closet for all your storage needs. The fenced-in backyard provides a private outdoor space, perfect for relaxation or entertaining. The interior of the home has been refreshed with a fresh coat of paint, giving it a clean and contemporary feel. Additionally, partial flooring replacement has been done, enhancing the overall aesthetic of the home. This property is a perfect blend of style and comfort, waiting for you to make it your own. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Fenced-in backyard
• 2,975 sq ft lot

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• PARTIAL FLOORING REPLACEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $226k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemmenway El (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,151 students, 82% FRL); Hopper Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 930 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,630 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,117
• List price: $226,000
• Delta: -0.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6114 Elton Knolls St	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,596 (0%)	6mo	$225,000	$141	81
6618 Portlick Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,613 (+1%)	2mo	$245,000	$152	81
19518 Kadabra Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,698 (+6%)	2mo	$230,000	$135	70
20019 Mason Creek Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,731 (+8%)	3mo	$259,000	$150	63
6342 Torrance Elms Ct	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,820 (+14%)	4mo	$224,000	$123	63
19538 Billineys Park Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-6%)	6mo	$214,900	$144	60
21007 Terrace View Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (-8%)	1mo	$250,000	$169	57
5914 Laramie River Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (-7%)	6mo	$237,500	$159	55
6310 Macquarie Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,708 (+7%)	5mo	$275,000	$161	52
20914 Hall Colony Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,820 (+14%)	4mo	$248,000	$136	49
6003 Ida Rose Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,758 (+10%)	2mo	$245,000	$139	48
19440 Tahoka Springs Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (-8%)	6mo	$231,600	$158	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,571
• Equity at exit: $51,630

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-50,983
• Equity at exit: $51,762

Cash invested: $63,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax from tax record: −$461 /mo · $5,531/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,284

Max offer price $198,630

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-91	+0% $-155	+5% $-219	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-237	+0% $-155	+5% $-72	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-97	base $-155	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,500
• Closing costs: $6,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6619 Rusty Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,895	$1.31	6d	1	0.10mi
6642 High Stone Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$1,999	$0.96	45d	1	0.28mi
6502 Wellington Meadows Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,500	$1.06	14d	1	0.28mi
19638 Billineys Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1752	$1,750	$1.00	21d	1	0.30mi
20507 Barker Bend Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,825	$1.23	45d	1	0.36mi
19607 Buckland Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$1,965	$1.09	4d	1	0.38mi
6810 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,683	$2.33	1d	58	0.44mi
20967 Young Meadows Way Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,795	$1.43	9d	1	0.50mi
20735 Dewberry Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$1,756	$1.09	24d	1	0.62mi
6506 Garden Canyon Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,895	$1.03	24d	1	0.67mi
21035 Carmel Valley Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,791	$1.25	26d	1	0.72mi
19802 Plantation Grove Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,745	$1.09	45d	1	0.77mi
6402 Wild River Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,091	$1.33	4d	1	0.77mi
19735 Plantation Grove Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,719	$1.22	4d	1	0.81mi
19730 Cozy Cabbin Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,800	$1.17	24d	1	0.84mi
19434 Glenway Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	45d	1	0.89mi
19442 Elmtree Estates Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,776	$1.02	14d	1	0.89mi
20123 Braley Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,976	$1.14	1d	1	0.92mi
19903 Mountain Dale Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,896	$1.40	1d	1	0.92mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$3,258	$1.83	1d	41	1.06mi
6010 Diantha St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,856	$1.27	45d	1	1.10mi
5706 Fullgarden Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	2023	$1,966	$0.97	1d	1	1.10mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	45d	1	1.12mi
5906 Grand Colony Dr Katy, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1143	$1,720	$1.50	1d	10	1.18mi
21038 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,491	$1.31	45d	1	1.18mi
21034 Shore Oak Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	2110	$2,950	$1.40	45d	1	1.22mi
5707 Amelia Plantation Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1687	$2,020	$1.20	45d	1	1.23mi
6747 Scarlet Sagebrush St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,300	$1.50	45d	1	1.26mi
5523 Dapplewood Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,825	$1.17	1d	1	1.27mi
19715 Swan Valley Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,886	$1.37	45d	1	1.29mi
5418 Gosforth Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2150	$2,150	$1.00	45d	1	1.30mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	45d	1	1.31mi
21031 Sandestin Ridge Dr Cypress, TX	5.0	3.5	2099	$2,861	$1.36	45d	1	1.32mi
19218 Sandelford Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1195	$1,000	$0.84	4d	1	1.32mi
19235 Sandelford Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,000	$0.75	9d	1	1.33mi
19203 Canaras Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1195	$1,750	$1.46	19d	1	1.34mi
21627 Calico Bush Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$3,800	$2.67	19d	1	1.36mi
20126 Breezy Oak Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,100	$1.26	6d	1	1.39mi
6331 Scotchwood Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1610	$1,681	$1.04	7d	1	1.39mi
21447 FM 529 Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,205	$2.21	1d	28	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $226,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $226,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $226,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $226,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $226,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $226,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $226,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $234,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-02-06
    listed $234,000 Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Welcome to 6434 Provident Green Dr, a home that exudes modern elegance. The kitchen is a chef's dream, boasting stainless steel appliances that are brand new and ready for use. The primary bedroom is a sanctuary, complete with a spacious walk-in closet for all your storage needs. The fenced-in backyard provides a private outdoor space, perfect for relaxation or entertaining. The interior of the home has been refreshed with a fresh coat of paint, giving it a clean and contemporary feel. Additionally, partial flooring replacement has been done, enhancing the overall aesthetic of the home. This property is a perfect blend of style and comfort, waiting for you to make it your own. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

17. 2026-01-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,531 · $461/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,531 · $461/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,660
• − Property taxes: −$5,531
• − Insurance: −$1,130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$6,575
• Taxable loss: −$5,619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,348
• After-tax cash flow: $-511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $234,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,531 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.