621 Sheafe Rd Lot 8 · Crown Heights, NY 12601

$82,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · Manufactured · 88 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition $92/sqft · 17% below area Est $99k · 17% under $850/mo HOA · 42% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming mobile home in an incredible location—just a short walk to the shopping mall, public transportation, restaurants, and grocery stores. Everything you need is right at your fingertips. This home features 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath, and was fully renovated approximately 8 years ago, including stainless steel appliances and modern finishes throughout. Come take a look. This is a wonderful opportunity for first-time homebuyers or anyone looking to downsize in a convenient, well-located community.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Modern finishes
• Built 1981

Tags

• SHORT WALK TO SHOPPING MALL
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MODERN FINISHES
• FULLY RENOVATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#188 in NY, #2,904 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Wappingers Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #207 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,080 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.44%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,909
• List price: $82,000
• Delta: -17.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
621 Sheafe Rd #50	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+13%)	10mo	$94,000	$94	71
621 Sheafe Rd #123	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+13%)	9mo	$95,000	$95	66
621 Sheafe Rd #184	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+13%)	10mo	$105,000	$105	65
567 Sheafe Rd Lot 52	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+8%)	13mo	$115,000	$120	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $144
• Equity at exit: $12,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $22,895
• Equity at exit: $7,090

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12601

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$850
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Anthony Dr Poughkeepsie, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$2,595	$3.05	13d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $850 · $10,200/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $82,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $82,000 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Welcome to this charming mobile home in an incredible location—just a short walk to the shopping mall, public transportation, restaurants, and grocery stores. Everything you need is right at your fingertips. This home features 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath, and was fully renovated approximately 8 years ago, including stainless steel appliances and modern finishes throughout. Come take a look. This is a wonderful opportunity for first-time homebuyers or anyone looking to downsize in a convenient, well-located community.

16. 2021-04-30
    historical
17. 2020-11-30
    listed $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $1,563
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$375
• After-tax cash flow: $1,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with modern finishes and a good location. Minor exterior painting and replacing curtains would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains improve aesthetics and tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains improve aesthetics and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wappingers Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629880
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $83,184
• Composite: 53.38/100
• National rank: #1474
• State rank: #207 of 590 in NY

Livability — Crown Heights

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #2904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,164
• Household income: $63,652
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2891.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.62%
• Current HPI: 293.9789
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+18.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $82,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-30 Listed $69,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid