1730 Hummingbird Rd · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$316,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Land · 112 Days on market

Built 2025 7,840 sqft lot $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to the Baldwin, a stunning four-bedroom, two-bathroom home located in the heart of Winter Haven, Florida at our Harmony at Lake Eloise community. As you enter the foyer to this beautiful designed home, you are greeted by with an open concept living space featuring luxury vinyl flooring throughout. The kitchen overlooks the dining and living room, while having a view to the oversized outdoor living space. The well-appointed kitchen features an island with bar seating, plentiful cabinet with beautiful quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, making entertaining a breeze. Bedroom one, located off the living space, has an en suite bathroom with double vanit

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• OVERSIZED OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• ISLAND WITH BAR SEATING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,025; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee $69; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, recreation facilities, trails, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Garage faces rear
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; High-speed internet / broadband available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (projected completion Jan 30, 2026); One story; Faces northeast; Residential zoning
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (model: Baldwin)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Sprinkler (metered); Irrigation equipment; City limits; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $317k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-347 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Snively Elementary (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 399 students, 72% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,117 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.69%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-76,033
• Equity at exit: $47,264

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-104,978
• Equity at exit: $27,408

Cash invested: $88,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,421 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,662
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,755/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,860

Max offer price $266,791

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-128	-5% $-237	+0% $-347	+5% $-456	+10% $-566
Rent	-10% $-538	-5% $-443	+0% $-347	+5% $-251	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-187	-0.5pp $-266	base $-347	+0.5pp $-429	+1.0pp $-513

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,248
• Closing costs: $9,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2587 Sage Valley Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,300	$1.50	15d	1	0.21mi
1504 Hummingbird Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,599	$1.34	3d	1	0.43mi
1504 Hummingbird Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,599	$1.34	24d	1	0.43mi
2249 9th St SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,449	$0.95	19d	1	1.08mi
109 Solis Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,086	$1.28	3d	1	1.12mi
2442 Taloncrest Ct Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,700	$1.46	24d	1	1.19mi
301 Majestic Gardens Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1951	$2,020	$1.04	19d	1	1.21mi
2000 Golden Beak Dr Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,990	$1.29	15d	1	1.27mi
2029 Carroll Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,500	$1.19	22d	1	1.42mi
670 Eagle Landing Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,999	$1.35	3d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $316,990
3. 2026-02-19
   price $314,990
4. 2026-01-16
   listed $319,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,756
• − Property taxes: −$4,755
• − Insurance: −$1,585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,324
• − Management: −$2,324
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$9,222
• Taxable loss: −$9,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,338
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $316,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $314,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $319,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid