7353 Mistletoe Trl · Pecan Plantation, TX 76048

$246,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · Land · 56 Days on market

Built 2025 6,970 sqft lot $137/sqft · 7% above area Est $230k · 7% over $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21248955 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-2 A1 Madison The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertainment and everyday living. Stai

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is builder special listing condition; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Accepted financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA; No second mortgage reported; Loan type: Treat as clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Treaty Oaks HOA); HOA fees $200 quarterly; Association fee includes management fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage faces front
• Utilities: City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two-story; New construction (2025)
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2025 (new construction - complete)
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Treaty Oak; Directions available

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom upstairs with dual sinks and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Loft; Pantry; One living area; One dining area; 8 total rooms; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($355/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.3% in Pecan Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#362 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,283 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,772
• List price: $246,990
• Delta: 7.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,349
• Equity at exit: $36,827

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-51,064
• Equity at exit: $21,355

Cash invested: $69,157 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$309 /mo · $3,705/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,245

Max offer price $246,990

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,748
• Closing costs: $7,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Bluebonnet Way Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,095	$0.95	5d	1	0.11mi
350 Azalea Trl Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1510	$2,000	$1.32	43d	1	0.11mi
383 Azalea Trl Granbury, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,300	$0.88	24d	1	0.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $246,990 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $246,990 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $246,990 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $246,990 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $246,990 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $246,990 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $246,990 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $246,990 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $246,990 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $246,990 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $246,990 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $246,990 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $246,990 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $246,990 Active 992-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,835
• − Property taxes: −$3,705
• − Insurance: −$1,235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,192
• − Management: −$2,192
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$7,185
• Taxable loss: −$3,753
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$901
• After-tax cash flow: $1,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #7773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $246,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · +34.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.