Magnolia Plan · Plum Grove, TX 77336

$253,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,055 sqft · SingleFamily · 175 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

Key facts

• Listed 175 days

🏗️ New construction. The $253,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,885.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,042 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,885
• List price: $253,990
• Delta: -9.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1229 Corsica Cliffs Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,045 (-0%)	1mo	$284,230	$139	95
31115 De La Guerra St	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,045 (-0%)	2mo	$285,980	$140	91
1216 Pavia Fields Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,120 (+3%)	1mo	$295,990	$140	90
1202 Peter Pine St	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,085 (+2%)	1mo	$355,000	$170	83
1128 Peter Pine St	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,027 (-1%)	1mo	$332,400	$164	82
31112 De La Guerra	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,244 (+9%)	1mo	$279,280	$124	77
1210 Romany Fields Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,941 (-6%)	2mo	$244,390	$126	77
1105 Peter Pine St	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,118 (+3%)	1mo	$334,000	$158	76
31028 Perdido Valley Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,255 (+10%)	0mo	$239,890	$106	75
1216 Romany Flds	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,857 (-10%)	2mo	$251,540	$135	70
1110 Long Leaf Pine St	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,943 (-6%)	1mo	$316,000	$163	67
1042 Gazing Pine St	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,943 (-6%)	2mo	$320,000	$165	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-60,007
• Equity at exit: $42,030

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-70,613
• Equity at exit: $24,372

Cash invested: $78,928 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,478
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,228/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,466

Max offer price $249,254

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-31	-5% $-128	+0% $-226	+5% $-323	+10% $-420
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-312	+0% $-226	+5% $-139	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-84	-0.5pp $-154	base $-226	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,471
• Closing costs: $8,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	3d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,990 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $253,990 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $253,990 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $253,990 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $253,990 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $253,990 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $253,990 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $253,990 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-03-05
   price $253,990 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

10. 2025-12-16
    listed $264,900 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,790
• − Property taxes: −$4,228
• − Insurance: −$1,409
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,093
• − Management: −$2,093
• − Depreciation: −$8,200
• Taxable loss: −$7,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,836
• After-tax cash flow: $-870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $253,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Listed $264,900 Zillow