409 Progress Rd · Gloversville, NY 12078

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,437 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1934 0.55 ac lot $104/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a country home? Great country location on . 55 acre yet close to shopping, restaurants, Saratoga, Great Sacandaga Lake/Adirondacks and a short drive to Albany/Capital District. Features 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, recent updates including new septic and electric service. Well is shared with 407 Progress Rd. by deeded maintenance agreement for right of way. ,

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1934

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1 garage space; Total of 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric with circuit breakers; Septic tank sewer; Shared well water
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area approximately 1,437
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Exterior described as Other; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Cooling system listed as other
• Interior features: Basement is full; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-64/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 8.7% in Gloversville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#70 in NY, #1,048 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, employment F.
• Mayfield Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #400 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,436 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,510
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -60.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Woody Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+1%)	13mo	$400,000	$275	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $81,371
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $239,917
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12078

• Home prices YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,145/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,301

Max offer price $149,065

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $150,000 Active 370-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,145 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,340 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$195/yr (+$16/mo · 9.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,145
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$627
• After-tax cash flow: $564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618750
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,922
• Composite: 42.08/100
• National rank: #3322
• State rank: #400 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gloversville

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #1048

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,087

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.22%
• Current HPI: 315.1368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $150,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,145 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.