Is Grand Rouge Plan in Manvel, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.6% cap rate and $-1,000/mo modeled cash flow at a $312,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Grand Rouge Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 3.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,563/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 28.95

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.2/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Rent growth +3.2/5.0
1% rule +0.9/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$312,990

Grand Rouge Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,979 sqft · SingleFamily · 226 Days on market

Excellent condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Grand Rouge is a 2-story duet home with sightlines that extend to the large kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio for seemless entertaining. The private primary suite continues the soaring ceilings and the luxurious bath includes a soaking tub and shower or an oversized shower. A mud room with bench connects the laundry and 2-car garage for added convenience. Upstairs, a loft and secondary bedrooms complete the home.

Key facts

Luxurious bath
Large kitchen
Covered patio

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $313k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (6.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (18.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $256k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.6% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1732 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $256,258 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.59% ✗
Cap rate: 3.55%
Cash-on-cash: -9.79%
DSCR: 0.56
GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $437,571
List price: $312,990
Delta: -28.47%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5227 Palo Verde Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,977 (-0%)	3mo	$325,000	$164	69
5303 Palo Verde Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (-4%)	1mo	$340,000	$178	60
10115 Palm Springs Pl	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,878 (-5%)	2mo	$350,000	$186	59
10107 Palm Springs Pl	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,866 (-6%)	2mo	$330,000	$177	59
4946 Hitchings Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,141 (+8%)	3mo	$336,000	$157	59
5002 Morrison Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,234 (+13%)	2mo	$399,900	$179	58
5235 Palo Verde Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-7%)	3mo	$325,000	$177	58
10127 Palm Springs Pl	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,878 (-5%)	4mo	$350,000	$186	58
5251 Palo Verde Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (-4%)	4mo	$335,000	$175	58
5215 Getty Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,872 (-5%)	4mo	$361,000	$193	51
6019 Renoir Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,172 (+10%)	1mo	$399,990	$184	46
5319 Murillo Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,262 (+14%)	2mo	$419,990	$186	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.1%
Equity multiple: -0.10×
Total profit: $-135,118
Equity at exit: $65,243

10-year hold

IRR: -44.4%
Equity multiple: -0.65×
Total profit: $-201,890
Equity at exit: $37,833

Cash invested: $122,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 201 active · 66 under contract
Months of supply: 22.8 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $394,900 ($194/sqft)
Median days on market: 164 d
This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +13.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77578

Rents YoY: 2.8%
Active inventory: 1732
Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,563 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,295
Tax est. 1.5%: −$547 /mo · $6,564/yr
Insurance: −$182
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
Net cashflow: $-1,000

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,828

Max offer price $292,939

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-697	-5% $-848	+0% $-1,000	+5% $-1,151	+10% $-1,302
Rent	-10% $-1,202	-5% $-1,101	+0% $-1,000	+5% $-898	+10% $-797
Rate	-1.0pp $-779	-0.5pp $-888	base $-1,000	+0.5pp $-1,113	+1.0pp $-1,228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $109,393
Closing costs: $13,127
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5123 Morrison Dr Unit Labs Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2209	$2,800	$1.27	29d	1	0.26mi
5602 Caracara St Manvel, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,200	$1.16	56d	1	0.35mi
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	165d	1	0.36mi
9510 Turnstone Dr Arcola, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,495	$1.32	140d	1	0.37mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	143d	1	0.43mi
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	115d	1	0.56mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	184d	1	1.41mi
4143 Champlain Way Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	10d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $312,990 Active 226 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $312,990 Active 225 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $312,990 Active 224 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $312,990 Active 223 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $312,990 Active 222 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $312,990 Active 220 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $312,990 Active 219 DOM
2026-10-31

pricedays on market $312,990 Active 218 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $322,990 Active 217 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $322,990 Active 216 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $322,990 Active 215 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $322,990 Active 214 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $322,990 Active 213 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $322,990 Active 212 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $322,990 Active 211 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $322,990 Active 210 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $322,990 Active 209 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $322,990 Active 208 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $322,990 Active 207 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $322,990 Active 206 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $322,990 Active 205 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $322,990 Active 204 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $322,990 Active 203 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $322,990 Active 202 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $322,990 Active 201 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $322,990 Active 200 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $322,990 Active 199 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $322,990 Active 198 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $322,990 Active 197 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $322,990 Active 196 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $322,990 Active 195 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $322,990 Active 194 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $322,990 Active 193 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $322,990 Active 192 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $322,990 Active 191 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $322,990 Active 190 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $322,990 Active 189 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $322,990 Active 188 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $322,990 Active 187 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $322,990 Active 186 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $322,990 Active 185 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $322,990 Active 184 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $322,990 Active 183 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $322,990 Active 182 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $322,990 Active 181 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $322,990 Active 180 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $322,990 Active 179 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $322,990 Active 178 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $322,990 Active 177 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $322,990 Active 176 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,751
− Mortgage interest: −$24,511
− Property taxes: −$6,564
− Insurance: −$2,188
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,460
− Management: −$2,460
− Depreciation: −$12,729
Taxable loss: −$20,161

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,839
After-tax cash flow: $-7,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
Both Window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal ↑

Schools (NCES district)

District: Alvin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808090
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $66,740
Composite: 38.96/100
National rank: #4080
State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

Score: 67/100
State rank: #544
US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Manvel, TX
County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population: 30,210
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 30,210
Household income: $134,016
Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
Current HPI: 218.4264
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-05-15 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
2026-03-27 Listed $342,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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