Grand Rouge Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

$352,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,979 sqft · SingleFamily · 134 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Grand Rouge is a 2-story duet home with sightlines that extend to the large kitchen and breakfast area. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows overlooking the covered patio for seemless entertaining. The private primary suite continues the soaring ceilings and the luxurious bath includes a soaking tub and shower or an oversized shower. A mud room with bench connects the laundry and 2-car garage for added convenience. Upstairs, a loft and secondary bedrooms complete the home.

Key facts

• Luxurious bath
• Large kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LUXURIOUS BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $352,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $438,337.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $353k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-983 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.5% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1437 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $259,051 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.61%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $438,337
• List price: $352,990
• Delta: -19.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5318 Majestic Ct	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,901 (-4%)	2mo	$360,000	$189	79
5227 Palo Verde Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,977 (-0%)	0mo	$325,000	$164	72
10102 Palm Springs Pl	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,901 (-4%)	1mo	$347,990	$183	63
10131 Palm Springs Pl	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,901 (-4%)	1mo	$365,000	$192	61
10127 Palm Springs Pl	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,878 (-5%)	1mo	$350,000	$186	60
5251 Palo Verde Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (-4%)	1mo	$335,000	$175	60
5239 Palo Verde Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (-4%)	2mo	$355,490	$186	60
5222 Sage Hills Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,866 (-6%)	2mo	$320,000	$171	57
5215 Getty Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,872 (-5%)	1mo	$361,000	$193	54
5219 Getty Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,129 (+8%)	2mo	$379,000	$178	44
5210 Getty Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,753 (-11%)	1mo	$346,990	$198	40
5310 Getty Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,262 (+14%)	1mo	$399,990	$177	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-134,180
• Equity at exit: $65,357

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-199,722
• Equity at exit: $37,899

Cash invested: $122,734 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 201 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,900 ($194/sqft)
• Median days on market: 86 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1437
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,299
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$548 /mo · $6,575/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,834

Max offer price $296,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-680	-5% $-831	+0% $-983	+5% $-1,134	+10% $-1,286
Rent	-10% $-1,187	-5% $-1,085	+0% $-983	+5% $-880	+10% $-778
Rate	-1.0pp $-762	-0.5pp $-871	base $-983	+0.5pp $-1,096	+1.0pp $-1,212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,584
• Closing costs: $13,150
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5602 Caracara St Manvel, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,550	$1.35	30d	1	0.34mi
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	73d	1	0.36mi
9510 Turnstone Dr Arcola, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,495	$1.32	48d	1	0.37mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	52d	1	0.43mi
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	23d	1	0.56mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	93d	1	1.41mi
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	93d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $352,990 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $352,990 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $352,990 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $352,990 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $352,990 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $352,990 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $352,990 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $352,990 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $352,990 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $352,990 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $352,990 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $352,990 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $352,990 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $352,990 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $352,990 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $352,990 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $352,990 Active 111 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $352,990 Active 110 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $352,990 Active 109 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $352,990 Active 108 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $352,990 Active 107 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $352,990 Active 106 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $352,990 Active 105 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $352,990 Active 104 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $352,990 Active 102 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    price $352,990 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $345,990 Active 101 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $345,990 Active 100 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $345,990 Active 99 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $345,990 Active 98 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $345,990 Active 97 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $345,990 Active 96 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $345,990 Active 95 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $345,990 Active 94 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $345,990 Active 93 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $345,990 Active 92 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $345,990 Active 91 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $345,990 Active 89 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $345,990 Active 87 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $345,990 Active 86 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $345,990 Active 83 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $345,990 Active 82 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $345,990 Active 81 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $345,990 Active 80 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $345,990 Active 78 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $345,990 Active 77 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $345,990 Active 74 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $345,990 Active 73 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $345,990 Active 72 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $345,990 Active 69 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,554
• − Property taxes: −$6,575
• − Insurance: −$2,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,487
• − Management: −$2,487
• − Depreciation: −$12,752
• Taxable loss: −$19,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,790
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Listed $342,990 Zillow