797 Olive Conch St · Ruskin, FL 33570

$365,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,415 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot $151/sqft · 12% below area Est $415k · 12% under $14/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome Home to 797 Olive Conch Street, nestled in the highly desirable community of Shell Cove in Ruskin! This home boasts 5 bedrooms, 2-1/2 bathrooms and a spacious open floorplan that features a living room, eat-In Kitchen with oversized island and a dining room, offering the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and location. The kitchen features ample countertop space, appliances, abundant cabinetry, and a walk-in pantry, making it perfect for everyday living and entertaining alike. The primary suite is conveniently located on the 1st floor, offering privacy and ease of access of oversized walk-in closet and spacious layout. Upstairs, you will find a spacious family room loft and 4 additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or workspace needs. The inside laundry room is conveniently located near the kitchen for added practicality. The home has a large, fenced backyard. This home offers access to fantastic community amenities, including a resort-style pool, centralized mail station, playground, and tennis courts. Enjoy being just minutes from beautiful local attractions such as Bahia Beach, Little Harbor, Shell Point Marina, and E. G. Simmons Park. With easy access to major highways, commuting to Tampa or Sarasota is a breeze. Low HOA annually. Call today to schedule your private tour! This home has it all! Be ready to Fall in love at your first viewing!

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Primary suite
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $365k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (48.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Elementary (math 42% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 744 students, 69% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 703 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,798/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,958 (48.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,083
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -12.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
451 Sunlit Coral St	0.38mi	5/3.0	2,522 (+4%)	0mo	$339,900	$135	74
506 3rd Ave SE	1.19mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,349 (-3%)	0mo	$410,000	$175	55
1532 Bonita Bluff Ct	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,210 (-8%)	5mo	$210,500	$95	55
972 Ocean Spray Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,926 (-20%)	0mo	$320,000	$166	52
556 19th St NW	1.03mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,732 (+13%)	10mo	$360,000	$132	28
2624 White Coquina Loop	1.25mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,875 (+19%)	28mo	$761,075	$265	13
546 Vista Ridge Dr	0.86mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,929 (-20%)	36mo	$375,000	$194	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-128,657
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -89.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-215,562
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 76.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $391,450 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33570

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,798 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$712 /mo · $8,538/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-1,008

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,074

Max offer price $186,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-801	-5% $-905	+0% $-1,008	+5% $-1,111	+10% $-1,214
Rent	-10% $-1,229	-5% $-1,118	+0% $-1,008	+5% $-897	+10% $-787
Rate	-1.0pp $-824	-0.5pp $-915	base $-1,008	+0.5pp $-1,102	+1.0pp $-1,199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
774 Olive Conch St Ruskin, FL	5.0	2.5	2264	$2,650	$1.17	48d	1	0.02mi
861 Olive Conch St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,300	$1.20	54d	1	0.07mi
602 Olive Conch St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2078	$2,300	$1.11	54d	1	0.12mi
951 Olive Conch St Ruskin, FL	5.0	2.5	2389	$2,700	$1.13	73d	1	0.13mi
929 Anchor Bend Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,495	$1.29	14d	1	0.18mi
811 Parker Den Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2325	$2,800	$1.20	73d	1	0.18mi
984 Ocean Spray Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,315	$1.02	16d	1	0.27mi
996 Ocean Spray Dr Ruskin, FL	5.0	3.0	2387	$2,580	$1.08	12d	1	0.28mi
1215 Ocean Spray Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2035	$2,290	$1.13	16d	1	0.34mi
477 Sunlit Coral St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,149	$0.92	73d	1	0.36mi
1620 Bonita Bluff Ct Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,166	$0.99	54d	1	0.63mi
1761 Bonita Bluff Ct Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$2,395	$1.13	15d	1	0.71mi
1824 Mira Lago Cir Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	2358	$2,540	$1.08	22d	1	0.75mi
1824 Mira Lago Cir Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	2358	$2,540	$1.08	42d	1	0.75mi
515 Vista Ridge Dr Ruskin, FL	6.0	3.5	2756	$2,800	$1.02	54d	1	0.81mi
165 Rain Berry Ave Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2439	$2,600	$1.07	42d	1	0.82mi
320 Blue Point Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,110	$1.19	32d	1	0.90mi
5234 Clover Mist Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,315	$1.15	8d	1	1.17mi
419 Halifax Bay Ct Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2379	$4,200	$1.77	22d	1	1.23mi
1074 Seagrape Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.5	2913	$6,250	$2.15	8d	1	1.31mi
403 Royal Empress Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,500	$1.31	27d	1	1.32mi
1011 Seagrape Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	4.0	2875	$4,450	$1.55	48d	1	1.42mi
1221 Barclay Wood Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	2169	$2,260	$1.04	10d	1	1.43mi
3027 Bermuda Sloop Cir Ruskin, FL	4.0	4.0	2869	$4,900	$1.71	67d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail $14/mo · $168/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $365,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $365,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $365,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $365,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $365,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $365,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $365,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $365,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $365,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $365,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $365,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $365,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $365,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $365,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $365,000 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $365,000 Active 133 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $365,000 Active 131 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $365,000 Active 130 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $365,000 Active 129 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $365,000 Active 128 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $365,000 Active 127 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 125 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $365,000 Active 124 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $365,000 Active 123 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $365,000 Active 122 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 121 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 120 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 119 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $365,000 Active 118 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $365,000 Active 117 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $365,000 Active 116 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $365,000 Active 115 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $365,000 Active 114 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $365,000 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $365,000 Active 110 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $365,000 Active 109 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $365,000 Active 106 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $365,000 Active 105 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $365,000 Active 104 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $365,000 Active 103 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $365,000 Active 101 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $365,000 Active 100 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $365,000 Active 97 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $365,000 Active 96 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 95 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 92 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 91 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 90 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,538 · $712/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,538 · $712/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$8,538
• − Insurance: −$6,944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,686
• − Management: −$2,686
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$18,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,442
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,075–$36,225 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, minimal repairs, and maintenance required. The highest-ROI updates include painting, landscaping, and replacing kitchen appliances.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Thompson Elementary F FL #1,454/2,144 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruskin, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,319
• Household income: $72,172
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.10%
• Current HPI: 277.8257
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-93.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $380,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $399,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Listed $404,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $5,198,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,538 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.