1502 W 16th St · Junction City, KS 66441

$164,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1960 6,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Another fantastic listing presented by Carla Beavers with HOMEFRONT Real Estate Group. This ranch style home offers 4 bedrooms (3 conforming and 1 non-conforming) and 1.5 baths. Property is being sold in "AS-IS" condition. This would make an excellent investment property to add to your portfolio! Don't miss on on this deal! Call or text Carla Beavers for a tour 785-223-2230

Key facts

• New siding
• Unfinished basement
• New gutters

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• NEW GUTTERS
• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Built on foundation with basement
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Partial fencing; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Has basement (utility space)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#266 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Geary County Schools (town): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #60 of 169 in KS (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westwood Elem (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #388 of 684 statewide, top 61%, 258 students, 75% FRL); Junction City Middle School (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #146 of 219 statewide, top 67%, 938 students, 61% FRL); Junction City Sr High (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #161 of 327 statewide, top 50%, 1,657 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 40% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 93 units permitted in Geary County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Geary County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,553 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.52%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,367
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,142
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66441

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,446/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,334

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $182	+0% $135	+5% $89	+10% $42
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $76	+0% $135	+5% $195	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $177	base $135	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   price $164,900
3. 2026-03-12
   listed $169,300 Active
4. 2025-07-19
   soldstatus Closed 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Another fantastic listing presented by Carla Beavers with HOMEFRONT Real Estate Group. This ranch style home offers 4 bedrooms (3 conforming and 1 non-conforming) and 1.5 baths. Property is being sold in "AS-IS" condition. This would make an excellent investment property to add to your portfolio! Don't miss on on this deal! Call or text Carla Beavers for a tour 785-223-2230

5. 2025-05-14
   status Pending 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Another fantastic listing presented by Carla Beavers with HOMEFRONT Real Estate Group. This ranch style home offers 4 bedrooms (3 conforming and 1 non-conforming) and 1.5 baths. Property is being sold in "AS-IS" condition. This would make an excellent investment property to add to your portfolio! Don't miss on on this deal! Call or text Carla Beavers for a tour 785-223-2230

6. 2025-04-30
   listed $75,000 Active 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Another fantastic listing presented by Carla Beavers with HOMEFRONT Real Estate Group. This ranch style home offers 4 bedrooms (3 conforming and 1 non-conforming) and 1.5 baths. Property is being sold in "AS-IS" condition. This would make an excellent investment property to add to your portfolio! Don't miss on on this deal! Call or text Carla Beavers for a tour 785-223-2230

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,446 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,325 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$879/yr (+$73/mo · 60.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,446
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$1,129
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$271
• After-tax cash flow: $1,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geary County Schools
• NCES district ID: 2007890
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,319
• Composite: 30.2/100
• National rank: #6306
• State rank: #60 of 169 in KS

Livability — Junction City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #11965

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Junction City, KS
• County: Geary County · 25,828 people
• City population: 25,828
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• Population (ZIP): 25,828
• Household income: $59,522
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 950.0

Population outlook (Geary County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,364 people
• By 2030: 38,234 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 39,727 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 40,314 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 44,283 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 46,935 · +25.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Geary

• 2024 margin: R (+17.6) · D 40.1% · R 57.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.6 2020: R+14.7 2016: R+21.7 2012: R+14.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.25%
• Current HPI: 137.9936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.05%
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+119.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $164,900 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-12 Listed $169,300 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-19 Sold (MLS) — FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-05-14 Pending — FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-04-30 Listed $75,000 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,446 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.