Barbosa Plan · Texas City, TX 77510

$353,490

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,423 sqft · SingleFamily · 470 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-story home plan is part of our Smart Series and features up to 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage as standard, with the option to increase to enough space for 3 cars. It can reach over 2,400 sqft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 469 days

🏗️ New construction. The $353,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $353,332.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $353k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $353k).
• Recommended offer: $311k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 470 days — a 12% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,071 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 470 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.17%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,332
• List price: $353,490
• Delta: 0.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3214 Bolt Rope Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,452 (+1%)	1mo	$339,990	$139	84
14121 Baikal Manor Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,214 (-9%)	1mo	$349,990	$158	80
3406 Bright Keel Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,582 (+7%)	0mo	$396,990	$154	73
13601 Fairway Arbor Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,377 (-2%)	1mo	$394,990	$166	71
14006 Baikal Manor Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,126 (-12%)	1mo	$325,990	$153	68
3315 Hidden Mist Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (-11%)	1mo	$344,990	$160	67
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,063 (-15%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	65
13602 Hartwell Bend Dr	0.28mi	4/4.0	2,679 (+11%)	1mo	$499,990	$187	65
2820 Mackinac Bay Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,517 (+4%)	1mo	$441,990	$176	55
14318 Lunan Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,280 (-6%)	1mo	$364,987	$160	53
2816 Mackinac Bay Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,666 (+10%)	1mo	$452,990	$170	51
13507 Golden Isle Dr	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,772 (+14%)	1mo	$448,775	$162	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-30,074
• Equity at exit: $52,683

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $8,963
• Equity at exit: $30,550

Cash invested: $98,933 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,853
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$442 /mo · $5,300/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$762
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,091

Max offer price $353,332

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,333
• Closing costs: $10,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	1d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $353,490 Active 470 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $353,490 Active 469 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $353,490 Active 468 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $353,490 Active 467 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $353,490 Active 465 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $353,490 Active 461 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $353,490 Active 460 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $353,490 Active 459 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $353,490 Active 456 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $353,490 Active 455 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $353,490 Active 454 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $353,490 Active 453 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $353,490 Active 452 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    price $352,990 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    This 2-story home plan is part of our Smart Series and features up to 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage as standard, with the option to increase to enough space for 3 cars. It can reach over 2,400 sqft.

15. 2026-03-05
    price $352,490 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    This 2-story home plan is part of our Smart Series and features up to 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage as standard, with the option to increase to enough space for 3 cars. It can reach over 2,400 sqft.

16. 2025-07-02
    price $351,990 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    This 2-story home plan is part of our Smart Series and features up to 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage as standard, with the option to increase to enough space for 3 cars. It can reach over 2,400 sqft.

17. 2025-04-08
    price $350,990 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    This 2-story home plan is part of our Smart Series and features up to 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage as standard, with the option to increase to enough space for 3 cars. It can reach over 2,400 sqft.

18. 2025-03-08
    price $360,990 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    This 2-story home plan is part of our Smart Series and features up to 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage as standard, with the option to increase to enough space for 3 cars. It can reach over 2,400 sqft.

19. 2025-03-06
    listed $360,490 Active 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    This 2-story home plan is part of our Smart Series and features up to 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage as standard, with the option to increase to enough space for 3 cars. It can reach over 2,400 sqft.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,792
• − Property taxes: −$5,300
• − Insurance: −$1,767
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,485
• − Management: −$3,485
• − Depreciation: −$10,279
• Taxable loss: −$547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$131
• After-tax cash flow: $5,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready home with a good condition score and no major repairs needed is a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters.
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms — Updated flooring can attract more buyers and renters.
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing to buyers and renters.
• Resale Landscaping around the front door — A well-maintained front yard can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Lighting improvements — Better lighting can enhance curb appeal and make the home more inviting for buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms — Updated flooring can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing to buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Landscaping around the front door — A well-maintained front yard can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Lighting improvements — Better lighting can enhance curb appeal and make the home more inviting for buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• City population: 49,936
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $352,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $352,490 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $351,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $350,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $360,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Listed $360,490 Zillow