477 Fall City Rd · Jasper, AL 35503

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,921 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 245 Days on market

Built 1973 1.30 ac lot $41/sqft · 36% below area Est $204k · 21% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WILL NOT GO USDA OR FHA!! This versatile property offers plenty of potential whether you're searching for your next investment project or a large home to grow your family. With 3,190 sq. ft. on the main level plus a finished and unfinished basement, there's room for all! Main Level: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, family den, kitchen, breakfast nook, and dining room. Private Ensuite: Includes own kitchen, bath and living area. Basement Features 1-2 bedrooms, a bath, and a recreation room with additional unfinished space for storage or future expansion. You will LOVE the large covered back patio ideal for family gatherings and entertaining. Large Fenced Back Yard perfect for kids and pets to play. This home is priced to sell and full of possibilities don't miss out!

Key facts

• Recreation room
• Private ensuite
• 1.3 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE ENSUITE
• LARGE COVERED BACK PATIO
• RECREATION ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $739 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#228 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.80%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,787
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -21.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4325 Highway 195	0.62mi	2/2.5 (-1)	3,466 (-12%)	19mo	$248,000	$72	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $21,089
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $78,752
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35503

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $684/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $830	-5% $784	+0% $739	+5% $694	+10% $648
Rent	-10% $569	-5% $654	+0% $739	+5% $824	+10% $909
Rate	-1.0pp $820	-0.5pp $780	base $739	+0.5pp $698	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $160,000 Pending 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active Under Contract 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active Under Contract 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active Under Contract 243 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active Under Contract 242 DOM
6. 2026-01-26
   price $160,000 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   WILL NOT GO USDA OR FHA!! This versatile property offers plenty of potential whether you're searching for your next investment project or a large home to grow your family. With 3,190 sq. ft. on the main level plus a finished and unfinished basement, there's room for all! Main Level: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, family den, kitchen, breakfast nook, and dining room. Private Ensuite: Includes own kitchen, bath and living area. Basement Features 1-2 bedrooms, a bath, and a recreation room with additional unfinished space for storage or future expansion. You will LOVE the large covered back patio ideal for family gatherings and entertaining. Large Fenced Back Yard perfect for kids and pets to play. This home is priced to sell and full of possibilities don't miss out!

7. 2025-10-01
   listed $199,900 Active 764-char remark

   Show marketing remark (764 chars)

   WILL NOT GO USDA OR FHA!! This versatile property offers plenty of potential whether you're searching for your next investment project or a large home to grow your family. With 3,190 sq. ft. on the main level plus a finished and unfinished basement, there's room for all! Main Level: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, family den, kitchen, breakfast nook, and dining room. Private Ensuite: Includes own kitchen, bath and living area. Basement Features 1-2 bedrooms, a bath, and a recreation room with additional unfinished space for storage or future expansion. You will LOVE the large covered back patio ideal for family gatherings and entertaining. Large Fenced Back Yard perfect for kids and pets to play. This home is priced to sell and full of possibilities don't miss out!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$684
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $6,613
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,587
• After-tax cash flow: $7,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 0103450
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,664
• Composite: 21.51/100
• National rank: #8321
• State rank: #89 of 129 in AL

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #17152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,927
• Population (ZIP): 9,601

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.26%
• Current HPI: 172.9286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $160,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $199,900 Walker County Area MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $684 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.