776 Fair St · Houston, TX 77088

$193,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1940 7,200 sqft lot $129/sqft · 22% below area Est $248k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COME SEE THIS CHARMING 3-BEDROOM, 2-BATH HOME OFFERING COMFORT, CONVENIENCE, AND CHARACTER! The primary bedroom features a spacious walking-in closet, while the laundry room and well- designed kitchen make daily living a breeze. Enjoy gathering in the cozy Family room or outdoors on the yard, perfect for relaxing. Recent improvements include updated plumbing and a water system. Conveniently located with easy access to I-45N and just 20 minutes from downtown.

Key facts

• Walking-in closet
• Easy access to i-45n
• Updated plumbing

Tags

• WALKING-IN CLOSET
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• WELL-DESIGNED KITCHEN
• EASY ACCESS TO I-45N

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,890 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,081
• List price: $193,500
• Delta: -22.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
866 N Victory Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+0%)	7mo	$109,900	$73	80
882 Fortune St St	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,379 (-8%)	0mo	$265,000	$192	70
8414 Williamsdell St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	1mo	$210,000	$149	69
940 Lucky St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	8mo	$249,900	$163	64
863 Dolly Wright St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,448 (-4%)	9mo	$251,000	$173	62
905 Ferguson Way	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,582 (+5%)	6mo	$105,000	$66	61
773 Lucky St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+10%)	8mo	$180,000	$108	61
954 B Junell St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,617 (+8%)	10mo	$265,000	$164	57
797 Millville Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-10%)	13mo	$249,900	$185	47
885 W Little York Rd	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-11%)	12mo	$155,000	$115	44
774 Green Meadow Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	14mo	$195,000	$150	44
902 Lucky St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,727 (+15%)	12mo	$285,000	$165	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,118
• Equity at exit: $28,851

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-41,341
• Equity at exit: $16,730

Cash invested: $54,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77088

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,015
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,375/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,848

Max offer price $193,500

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,375
• Closing costs: $5,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
783 Fortune St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1328	$1,795	$1.35	16d	1	0.03mi
855 S Victory Dr Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1546	$2,300	$1.49	43d	1	0.20mi
8108 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.32mi
8110 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.33mi
8112 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.33mi
7486 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,290	$1.10	43d	1	0.34mi
8118 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.35mi
8120 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.35mi
8120 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	43d	1	0.35mi
8122 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.35mi
8304 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	22d	1	0.36mi
8306 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	20d	1	0.37mi
8310 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	20d	1	0.37mi
8312 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	20d	1	0.38mi
8312 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	20d	1	0.38mi
8404 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	43d	1	0.40mi
8406 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,695	$1.06	43d	1	0.41mi
929 Marjorie St Unit 1060806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$3,091	$2.87	7d	1	0.45mi
774 Dillard St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1899	$2,405	$1.27	20d	1	0.73mi
301 W Little York Rd Unit 1722 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,230	$0.93	20d	1	0.81mi
1032 Glen Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	43d	1	0.86mi
6513 Knox St Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1773	$2,100	$1.18	43d	1	1.09mi
9002 Bunny Run Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,950	$1.26	24d	1	1.17mi
7514 Sandle St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1523	$1,999	$1.31	43d	1	1.21mi
1438 Peach Spring Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.5	1288	$1,599	$1.24	1d	1	1.25mi
1450 Dewalt St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1371	$2,500	$1.82	43d	1	1.33mi
6127 W Montgomery Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1786	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	1.35mi
411 E Carby Rd Houston, TX	4.0	1.5	1806	$1,649	$0.91	22d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-01
   listed $193,500 Active 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   COME SEE THIS CHARMING 3-BEDROOM, 2-BATH HOME OFFERING COMFORT, CONVENIENCE, AND CHARACTER! The primary bedroom features a spacious walking-in closet, while the laundry room and well- designed kitchen make daily living a breeze. Enjoy gathering in the cozy Family room or outdoors on the yard, perfect for relaxing. Recent improvements include updated plumbing and a water system. Conveniently located with easy access to I-45N and just 20 minutes from downtown.

2. 2026-02-01
   historical
3. 2026-01-02
   price $205,000
4. 2025-11-01
   listed $225,000 Active
5. 2017-05-01
   soldstatus
6. 2017-04-28
   soldstatus Sold
7. 2017-04-10
   status Pending
8. 2017-04-09
   status Option Pending
9. 2017-01-27
   price $125,000
10. 2016-11-29
    listed $87,000 Active
11. 2016-11-23
    soldstatus
12. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,375 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,375 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,839
• − Property taxes: −$4,375
• − Insurance: −$968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,887
• − Management: −$1,887
• − Depreciation: −$5,629
• Taxable loss: −$2,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$481
• After-tax cash flow: $1,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,047
• Household income: $54,411
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2294.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.37%
• Current HPI: 325.0499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+122.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listed $193,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2017-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-01-27 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-29 Listed $87,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,375 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.